NFL Week 1 Betting Guide: Odds, Props and Picks
The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles held off the Atlanta Falcons 18-12 in an ugly, penalty-marred matchup to kick off the 2018 season Thursday. Though the contest bordered on unwatchable at times, the ending was riveting: The Falcons marched down to the Eagles' 5-yard line with one second left but couldn't come through with the game-tying score.
That finish was undoubtedly nerve-racking for Falcons and Eagles fans, but the same could be said for bettors, as the spread for the game closed at even at some books. If the Falcons scored the touchdown and hit the extra point, the betting pendulum would have swung the Atlanta backers' way. Alas, it wasn't meant to be.
The rest of the Week 1 slate should provide further excitement. If you feel like celebrating the first NFL weekend of the season with a few wagers, take a dive into this betting guide to kick-start your research.
Moneyline Picks
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Texans at Patriots: Texans (+225)
Steelers at Browns: Steelers (-215)
Buccaneers at Saints: Saints (-450)
49ers at Vikings: Vikings (-265)
Bengals at Colts: Bengals (+115)
Titans at Dolphins: Titans (-120)
Jaguars at Giants: Giants (+125)
Bills at Ravens: Ravens (-330)
Chiefs at Chargers: Chargers (-182)
Seahawks at Broncos: Broncos (-155)
Cowboys at Panthers: Panthers (-145)
Redskins at Cardinals: Cardinals (-119)
Bears at Packers: Packers (-310)
Jets at Lions: Jets (+230)
Rams at Raiders: Rams (-205)
Season Record ML: 0-1
Stay-Away Games
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San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
A wait-and-see approach is best regarding the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings as far as betting on either team. Both teams look stout, but they each have question marks.
The 49ers finished 5-0 last season after quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo took the signal-calling reins, but can they carry that momentum into 2018? San Francisco lost running back Jerick McKinnon for the year with a torn ACL suffered during a preseason practice, and now the team is calling upon Alfred Morris and Matt Breida to help fill the void.
The Vikings changed quarterbacks (Case Keenum to Kirk Cousins), offensive coordinators (Pat Shurmur to John DeFilippo) and kickers (Kai Forbath to Daniel Carlson). Running back Dalvin Cook is back after suffering a torn ACL in Week 4 last season, but how will he fare out of the gate?
The pick here is for the Vikings to hold serve at home and win outright, but it wouldn't be a big surprise to see San Francisco continue its magic under Jimmy G either.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
The two most important players on each team's defense (Los Angeles Chargers edge-rusher Joey Bosa and Kansas City Chiefs safety Eric Berry) are out and doubtful for Week 1 with foot and heel injuries, respectively. That increases the possibility this game will turn into a back-and-forth shootout, with the outcome in doubt until the final minutes. Flip a coin to decide who wins this one.
Like the 49ers and Chiefs above, it may behoove bettors to play a wait-and-see approach regarding the Chiefs and new quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who only has one regular-season game under his belt.
Mahomes could be the next big thing: a gunslinging signal-caller who can throw 70-yard touchdown passes with ease. But how will he do as the team's new leader? That remains to be seen, although early indications are that he'll lead a dynamic, high-flying offense.
Prop Bets You Can Take to the Bank
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San Francisco 49ers WR Marquise Goodwin: OVER 59.5 Yards (-110)
This may look like a bizarre recommendation on paper. San Francisco 49ers wideout Marquise Goodwin will face off against shutdown Minnesota Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes and a team defense that allowed a league-best 275.9 yards per game last year.
However, Goodwin and quarterback Jimmy Garappolo formed excellent chemistry immediately last year: Over their first three games together, Goodwin caught 24 passes for 319 yards. He's an excellent deep threat thanks to his blazing speed (the former University of Texas track star ran a 4.27-second 40-yard dash coming out of school). Conceivably, Goodwin can crack the 59.5-yard barrier with just one long pass.
Furthermore, Rhodes is listed as questionable on the injury report with a hamstring issue that limited his practices Wednesday and Thursday. If Rhodes is still hampered by the problem Sunday, the edge may go to Goodwin in the matchup.
New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley: Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense was ferocious last year, but it didn't fare well against running backs. Per Football Outsiders, the Jags were 16th in efficiency against pass-catching running backs in addition to 27th against the run. Jacksonville's 4.3 yards allowed per carry ranked 26th.
In order for the New York Giants to compete against the Jags in their home opener, they'll have to feed rookie running back Saquon Barkley early and often.
The second overall pick of the 2018 NFL draft amassed 5,038 yards from scrimmage and 51 touchdowns at Penn State. He was particularly adept as a pass-catcher out of the backfield during his last year in school, catching 54 passes for 632 yards and three scores.
Barkley should also be featured in the red zone as the team's No. 1 or No. 2 scoring option alongside wideout Odell Beckham Jr., increasing his touchdown chances.
Spreads to Bet
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Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) over Indianapolis Colts
No team allowed more passing yards per attempt than the Indianapolis Colts last season. Indy also finished last in pass-defense efficiency, per Football Outsiders.
The secondary returns safety (and 2017 first-round pick) Malik Hooker to the ranks after the former Ohio State star missed nine games last year with a torn ACL. That should provide a boost, but the starting secondary has very little experience.
Cornerback Kenny Moore II (five career starts), cornerback Nate Hairston (four), safety Clayton Geathers (12) and the aforementioned Hooker (six) have started just a season-and-a-half worth of games between the four of them. That may be a serious problem Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals and superstar wide receiver A.J. Green (57 career touchdowns in seven seasons).
Green should be a matchup nightmare for the Colts, who risk getting burned by other weapons (e.g., tight end Tyler Eifert, running back Joe Mixon, wideout John Ross) should they double-team him. Cincinnati should score a ton of points, and look for the Bengals to win this one outright.
New York Giants (+3) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Taking the points on a home underdog is always intriguing, but the New York Giants could win this game outright.
Granted, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense is arguably the best in the league, but the G-Men have the skill-position players to give the Jags problems, namely running back Saquon Barkley, wideout Odell Beckham Jr. and tight end Evan Engram.
On defense, the Giants defensive line may emerge as a powerhouse this year: Per Pro Football Focus, the team's three starters (Dalvin Tomlinson, B.J. Hill and Damon Harrison) all posted above-average grades this preseason. They can hold their own against second-year running back Leonard Fournette, who was the engine that drove the Jags offense last year with 1,040 rushing yards and nine scores.
Jacksonville's best chance for offensive success may be through the air. New York will be without linebacker Olivier Vernon, a solid pass-rusher (40.5 sacks in the last five seasons) who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. The Giants secondary could also be vulnerable, as newly signed journeymen largely surround two Pro Bowlers (cornerback Janoris Jenkins and safety Landon Collins).
The Jaguars may ultimately have a better year, but the Giants present a tough matchup, especially on their home turf. Look for them to win a close one.
Line Movement
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-6 PIT to -4 PIT and 47 O/U to 41 O/U)
Evan Silva of Rotoworld and NBC Sports tweeted that the Steelers-Browns line, which opened at 6.5 points in favor of Pittsburgh, has dropped down to four points even though 62 percent of bets have been on Pittsburgh. The books did have the Steelers at -3.5 earlier this week, but the minimum spread has crept back to four.
Reading between the lines, it's clear where the sharp money is going, and that's on the Browns, who in all likelihood won't have to face Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell as he continues his contract holdout.
Silva backs the Browns this week for other reasons, pointing out that the Steelers run defense sans linebacker Ryan Shazier will have a tough time stopping Browns running back Carlos Hyde. Pittsburgh's run-stopping efforts were its Achilles heel last year, most notably in giving up 290 rushing yards and five touchdowns in two games against Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette.
For Pittsburgh backers, the line is more palatable at 3.5 or four points. ESPN Sports Betting Analyst Doug Kezirian noted that he'd rather bet the Steelers at the lower spread sans Bell than Pittsburgh as touchdown favorites with him.
In addition to the spread movement, the over/under has dropped significantly. Per the National Weather Service, there is a 100 percent chance of rain, with wind gusts as high as 33 mph and precipitation amounts of one to two inches estimated. This game could resemble the Steelers' 3-0 Mud Bowl win in 2007 over the Miami Dolphins.
The line movement will be something to monitor as Sunday approaches.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7 BAL to -7.5 BAL)
Per a 2016 study from Eldorado, the most common scoring deficit in NFL history is three points, with the second-most common seven points.
If a line sits at three or seven points and goes over or under that total for whatever reason, even by a half point, that's a noticeable movement and may symbolize bettors' strong confidence for a certain team.
That's the case in the Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens matchup. Per OddsShark, the line started at three or 3.5 points in favor of Baltimore at most books before ballooning to seven in early September. However, many books added a hook (half-point) on that spread Wednesday, which means Baltimore can be found as 7.5-point favorites.
That's a bit scary for Baltimore backers, as they'll now lose the bet with a fairly standard one-touchdown win. However, Buffalo's offense is no match for the Baltimore defense on paper, so if the Ravens offense can claw its way to a respectable showing, the hook may not matter.
Easy Over/Unders
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Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: Under 45 Points
New Tennessee Titans lead running back Derrick Henry rushed for 4.2 yards per carry last year and showed what he's capable of when he amassed 191 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown versus the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card Round.
The bruising 6'3", 247-pound back is the opposite of Dion Lewis, a 5'8", 195-pounder who is an adept pass-catcher (32 receptions, 214 yards last year for the New England Patriots). Lewis led the NFL in defense-adjusted yards above replacement among running backs in 2017, per Football Outsiders.
That duo should enable the Titans to dominate time-of-possession battles, leading to grinding victories where Tennessee gains gobs of yards on the ground.
One of those may be in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins, who allowed a league-worst 151.5 rushing yards per game in the preseason. The Fins' front seven struggled without defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh to plug the middle, and that trend may bleed into the regular season.
This Titans-Dolphins game could be a low-scoring slog as Henry and Lewis chew up yards five at a time as the clock ticks to zero.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: Under 46.5 Points
The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers each made key offseason defensive additions that will significantly strengthen both teams.
The Bears added rookie linebacker Roquan Smith in the first round of the NFL draft and traded for edge-rusher Khalil Mack, who has been named first-team All-Pro twice in his four-year career. Those two join a front seven that was already respectable with linebacker Leonard Floyd and defensive end Akiem Hicks to lead the way.
The Packers ranked in the bottom three in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, completion rate against and quarterback rating against. The secondary needed an overhaul, and the Packers did just that by adding cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson in the draft.
Jackson has been phenomenal this preseason: Per Pro Football Focus, opposing quarterbacks had a 0.0 passer rating when targeting the ex-Iowa star.
All of this may lead to a Sunday Night Football showdown that falls well below the 46.5-point total, which dropped a full point Friday at some sportsbooks. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is back healthy after missing half of last season with a broken collarbone, but he may run into some trouble against a stout Bears front seven.
Look for the Packers to hang on for a win, but this could be a close, low-scoring game.
Value Bets
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Moneyline: New York Jets over Detroit Lions (+230)
New York Jets rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is starting Week 1 against the Detroit Lions. The 21-year-old has a lot of weight on his shoulders, as the new face of the franchise is tasked with turning around a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2010.
He impressed in preseason play and drew praise from Danny Kelly of The Ringer: "Darnold's preseason stats won't blow you away ... but he displayed all the traits the Jets needed to see before naming him starting quarterback in Week 1. He showed poise, accuracy, mobility and a wise-beyond-his-years ability to go through his reads and throw the ball downfield."
Darnold could do worse than facing the Lions in Week 1. Detroit has a tough secondary led by cornerback Darius Slay and safety Glover Quin, but the front seven needs to do a better job in 2018. Last year, the Lions ranked 25th in adjusted line yards allowed and 22nd in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders. That may give Darnold enough time to stay comfortable in his season debut.
The Jets defense can give Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford problems. Specifically, its underrated secondary could be the difference. Ian Wharton of Optimum Scouting and Bleacher Report praised the back line in July, tweeting the following notes: "Anyone underrating the Jets secondary will look foolish. An elite press-man corner tandem in Trumaine Johnson (No. 1 in coverage success rate) and Mo Claiborne (No. 12), as well as two versatile safeties in Marcus Maye and Jamal Adams. It's a terrific group."
The Lions' pass attack is tough to stop with wideouts Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr. as a solid one-two punch, but Detroit doesn't have a reliable third pass-catcher, and it remains to be seen how the Lions' new backfield featuring rookie Kerryon Johnson and veteran LeGarrette Blount meshes. Look for Gang Green to spring an upset here.
Alternate Line: Los Angeles Rams over Oakland Raiders (-13.5 at +250)
The Los Angeles Rams offense averaged 29.9 points per game last season, and that included a Week 17 game in which they rested their starters and scored only 13. The primary cast of characters is back for another shot at Super Bowl glory with Associated Press Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley to lead the way. Quarterback Jared Goff has a new weapon in deep threat Brandin Cooks, and wideout Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are consistent threats who each managed 66 percent catch rates last year.
If the Rams avoid sloppy turnovers, the Oakland Raiders sans departed edge-rusher Khalil Mack have no shot of slowing them down. Mack took his excellent production (36.5 sacks in three years) with him to Chicago, and the Raiders are left with only one reliable pass-rusher (Bruce Irvin, who had eight sacks last year). Of course, someone else could get after the quarterback this year, but right now, the Raiders look like they may have a pass defense ranked in the bottom of the league.
The Rams could light up the scoreboard and turn this into a blowout before the fourth quarter.
Don't Get Sucked In (Sucker Bets)
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Moneyline: New England Patriots (-265) over Houston Texans
The Houston Texans were one stop away from upsetting the New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium last year, but a late touchdown secured a 36-33 Pats victory.
Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson proved difficult for the Patriots to contain. The ex-Clemson star threw for 301 passing yards in addition to 41 rushing yards. His No. 1 target, wideout DeAndre Hopkins, had an efficient day with seven catches for 76 yards on eight targets.
Notably, the Texans hung 33 points on the Pats even though wide receiver Will Fuller was out with an injury. When healthy, Fuller is an excellent deep threat capable of hauling in Watson's deep passes for touchdowns. Those two played in four games together last year, and Fuller caught 13 passes for 279 yards and seven touchdowns. Of course, that touchdown and yards-per-catch rate (21.5) isn't sustainable, but it's clear the two have a solid rapport.
Watson and Fuller will suit up Week 1. Ultimately, betting the Pats' money line seems like a risky proposition against a Texans team that could surprise this year.
Moneyline: New Orleans Saints (-450) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bettors have to risk $450 just for the chance to win $100 if they take the New Orleans Saints over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the money line. While the Saints are playing at home and the Bucs are starting backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick as the suspended Jameis Winston sits the first of three games, the return on investment here isn't worth it.
It's also possible the Bucs spring an upset, which was the case when these teams met in Week 17 last year. Granted, Winston was playing and the game took place in Tampa Bay, but divisional games between seemingly disparate opponents can sometimes stay close. Furthermore, the Bucs have added an infusion of talent on the defensive line, led by defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. That could help slow down the Saints attack.
Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens' Money Line (-330) over Buffalo Bills
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Placing a $330 bet to win $100 is not a great return on investment, but a Baltimore Ravens victory over the Buffalo Bills is the closest thing we have to a Week 1 lock.
The Bills offense is in a state of flux right now. Three offensive linemen who started in the playoffs (left tackle Cordy Glenn, guard Richie Incognito and center Eric Wood) are no longer with the team. The replacements have not fared well, most notably when they committed four penalties and allowed five sacks during the first half of a preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is now a Cleveland Brown, and his Week 1 replacement is Nathan Peterman, who threw five interceptions in one half against the Los Angeles Chargers last season.
That game was Peterman's debut, and he can certainly improve on that performance. However, it feels like he's being thrown to the wolves in Week 1 against the Ravens, who finished first in the league with 22 interceptions last year.
The Bills' only shots at victory are if running back LeSean McCoy has a monster game and/or Baltimore is careless with the ball and loses the turnover battle by a significant margin.
The former is unlikely, as a stout Ravens run defense finished seventh overall in adjusted line yards allowed, per Football Outsiders.
The latter doesn't seem likely either, as Baltimore was first in the league in give/take differential at plus-17 last season.
It doesn't help that running back Alex Collins leads a potent rushing attack that should help the Ravens win the time-of-possession battle.
The Bills will be hard-pressed to hit double-digit scoring in this one. The Ravens should win comfortably.
All moneylines, spreads and over/under totals are via OddsShark and accurate as of Friday, September 7 at 10:30 p.m. ET. All other types of bets are through Oddschecker and accurate as of Friday, September 7 at 10:30 p.m. ET.
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