Week 9 College Football Picks From WhatIfSports.com

Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.


Game of the Week: #4 USC 24 @ # 8 Oregon 21

Before the season started, this game looked like a blowout victory for USC. It looked even worse when Oregon was overmatched in Week 1 at Boise State. Now, as hot as any team in the country, the Ducks appear poised to make this a game.

As we geared up during the preseason, this week appeared to belong to the Big East. And while that conference still has plenty of intriguing games on the schedule, this week's West Virginia-South Florida matchup has lost some of its luster with the Bulls' recent decline.

Alternatively, the USC-Oregon matchup, once considered a virtual lock as a Trojan victory 95% of the time has gone from an also-ran game to this week's Game of the Week.

At 5.54 yards per play, the Ducks' offense certainly isn't earth-shattering, but Oregon is still recovering from its season-opening loss to Boise State. The Ducks have won six games in a row since then and have scored more than 30 points in five of those contests. Most people remember that Week 1 game for LaGarrette Blount's post-game punch. Oregon's then-starting running back remains suspended, but its rushing attack hasn't suffered with freshman running back LaMichael James and rushing quarterback Jeremiah Masoli.

The Ducks are 14th in the nation in total rushing offense at more than 210 yards per game, though partly due to the stumble out of the blocks, they're still averaging fewer than five yards per carry. Against the tenth toughest schedule this season, Oregon's defense ranks ninth in the country giving up just 4.1 yards per play.

USC's stumble came two weeks later than Oregon's with a 16-13 loss at Washington in the third week of the season. The Trojans have rebounded with four straight victories in which they've averaged more than 33 points per game. Saturday's game in Eugene, however, will be their stiffest test since the setback in Seattle. USC will rely on one of the most prolific offenses in the country. It ranks third in the nation, picking up 6.96 yards per play. At 242 yards per game, the Trojans are just 40th in the country in passing offense, yet, behind the arm of freshman signal-caller Matt Barkley (who didn't play in the Trojans' loss) they are one of just nine teams in the nation that average more than nine yards per passing attempt. Playing against the 12th ranked FBS schedule to date, USC also has the 11th-ranked defense and is giving up 4.3 yards per play. Only eight teams have given up fewer total touchdowns than the Trojans.

A 24-point rout for the Trojans in a game that was even considered to be amongst the week's best is now the week's top game, but USC still prevails. The visiting Trojans win 64.5% of the time over 10,000 simulations, but by three touchdowns fewer than we thought they might at the beginning of the season. USC holds off Oregon 24-21 in a battle of top ten teams from our most recent power rankings .

Other Notable Games in Week 9

Texas will put its national title hopes on the line at Oklahoma State. The Longhorns will face by far their toughest test of the final five weeks (six weeks if you include the Big 12 Championship against an obviously inferior North Division winner) when they go to Stillwater to take on the Cowboys. Texas remains unbeaten 63.3% of the time, edging Oklahoma State by a field goal, 31-28. In a battle of Big 12 teams trying to remain relevant, Texas Tech tops Kansas 57.0% of the time, 27-25.

In what once looked like it might be this week's best game, West Virginia hands South Florida its third consecutive loss 81.3% of the time. The Mountaineers win on the road by a score of 30-20. Elsewhere in the Big East, Connecticut tries to remain in the conference race, beating Rutgers 58.2% of the time and by less than a touchdown. And, no matter who plays at quarterback, Cincinnati stays unbeaten 95% of the time at Syracuse.

In the week's most intriguing out-of-conference matchup, Central Michigan, 7-1 on the season, will try to jump into the top 25 with a statement game against a team from a BCS conference. Dan LeFevour and the Chippewas go on the road to beat Boston College 59.0% of the time and by just a single point, 22-21.

In the SEC, our most recent top-ranked Florida remains unbeaten against Georgia 83.7% of the time and by two touchdowns and, once considered serious contenders for the conference title, Ole Miss and Auburn will fight to remain relevant with the Rebels winning 77.7% of the time on the road.

To see other picks like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week , as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

College Football Week 9
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	5.0	4
@ Clemson Tigers	95.0	44
North Carolina State Wolfpack	19.1	18
@ Florida State Seminoles	80.9	32
North Carolina Tar Heels	37.1	15
@ Virginia Tech Hokies	62.9	22
Central Michigan Chippewas	59.0	22
@ Boston College Eagles	41.0	21
Duke Blue Devils	62.9	18
@ Virginia Cavaliers	37.1	16
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	83.7	28
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	16.3	18
Arkansas State Red Wolves	41.8	19
@ Louisville Cardinals	58.2	23
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	41.8	19
@ Connecticut Huskies	58.2	23
West Virginia Mountaineers	81.3	30
@ South Florida Bulls	18.7	20
Cincinnati Bearcats	95.0	39
@ Syracuse Orange	5.0	9
New Mexico State Aggies	5.0	7
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	95.0	34
Indiana Hoosiers	8.4	13
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	91.6	32
Purdue Boilermakers	33.1	17
@ Wisconsin Badgers	66.9	26
Michigan State Spartans	81.7	24
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	18.3	14
Michigan Wolverines	84.1	30
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	15.9	17
Penn State Nittany Lions	90.0	29
@ Northwestern Wildcats	10.0	14
Akron Zips	19.5	14
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	80.5	29
Western Michigan Broncos	62.5	20
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	37.5	17
Ohio Bobcats	81.7	25
@ Ball State Cardinals	18.3	13
Toledo Rockets	82.5	27
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	17.5	16
UCLA Bruins	15.1	13
@ Oregon State Beavers	84.9	28
USC Trojans	64.5	24
@ Oregon Ducks	35.5	21
California Golden Bears	80.9	24
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	19.1	15
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	92.0	37
@ Washington State Cougars	8.0	17
Tulane Green Wave	5.0	7
@ LSU Tigers	95.0	35
Eastern Michigan Eagles	5.0	8
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	95.0	41
Georgia Bulldogs	16.3	19
@ Florida Gators	83.7	33
Mississippi State Bulldogs	39.4	15
@ Kentucky Wildcats	60.6	22
South Carolina Gamecocks	45.4	17
@ Tennessee Volunteers	54.6	21
Mississippi Rebels	77.7	28
@ Auburn Tigers	22.3	20
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	94.4	36
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	5.6	14
San Jose State Spartans	5.0	9
@ Boise State Broncos	95.0	43
Hawaii Warriors	11.2	22
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	88.8	41
Utah State Aggies	13.1	22
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	86.9	40
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	26.3	21
@ Idaho Vandals	73.7	32
Temple Owls	35.9	17
@ Navy Midshipmen	64.1	25
Kansas State Wildcats	28.3	17
@ Oklahoma Sooners	71.7	26
Kansas Jayhawks	43.0	25
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	57.0	27
Iowa State Cyclones	45.0	23
@ Texas A&M Aggies	55.0	27
Texas Longhorns	63.3	31
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	36.7	28
Missouri Tigers	80.1	26
@ Colorado Buffaloes	19.9	19
Nebraska Cornhuskers	81.3	24
@ Baylor Bears	18.7	14
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	15.1	23
@ Houston Cougars	84.9	41
Southern Methodist Mustangs	32.7	20
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	67.3	27
UAB Blazers	37.8	25
@ UTEP Miners	62.2	31
Marshall Thundering Herd	41.0	13
@ UCF Knights	59.0	19
East Carolina Pirates	76.9	23
@ Memphis Tigers	23.1	15
UNLV Rebels	5.0	10
@ TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	45
Wyoming Cowboys	13.5	12
@ Utah Utes	86.5	28
New Mexico Lobos	33.5	12
@ San Diego State Aztecs	66.5	19
Air Force Falcons	83.7	25
@ Colorado State Rams	16.3	14
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	23.1	17
@ North Texas Mean Green	76.9	29
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	31.5	17
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	68.5	26
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	43.4	20
@ Troy Trojans	56.6	25
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	94.8	29
@ Florida International Golden Panthers	5.2	11

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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at [e-mail] . Thanks!