Sports Marketwatch: MLB Edition

6/6/2008 4:00 PM EST

By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!  Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time. 

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

Last week, our MLB dogs didn’t get it done, dropping MLB MarketWatch to a poor 1-7.  This is a small sample size and we expect to make some forward progress in the near future.  While we expect to win less than 50% in the long run (in moneyline sports such as MLB and the NHL), the positive moneyline odds give us value. 

2008 MLB Games to Watch: 1-7, 12.5%, -5.5 units

*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates +150 over Arizona Diamondbacks

Our industry contacts circled this game because early sharp action moved the line towards Pittsburgh.  Several large bets came in on the Pirates, helping to move the line from its Pinnacle opener of Pitt +157 to the widely available Pitt +140.  SIA still has +150, which we are grabbing.

SportsInsights shows the line moved in the direction of Pittsburgh with only 25% of the bets on the Pirates.  The public loves Arizona and Webb – but the sharps like Pittsburgh as a “live home dog.”  We’ll take the side of the sharps and “bet against the public.”

Pittsburgh Pirates +150 (SIA)

San Diego Padres +140 over New York Mets

The Mets have been hyped as one of the leading contenders for a 2008 World Series Championship.  For most of the season, they have hovered around .500.  A recent surge has gotten them above .500 briefly, but they are still inconsistent. 

With Santana on the mound for the Mets tonight, a huge 90% of the bets are landing on the resurgent Mets.  We’ll take the “other, forgotten team” – the SD Padres at home – to give us some value and “sell” the currently over-rated Mets at a recent high. 

San Diego Padres +140

Washington Nationals +110 over San Francisco Giants

SportsInsights’ sports marketplace statistics helped us to flag this game as a “smart money” play on Washington.  With about 25% of the bets (moneyline and teasers/parlays) taking Washington, the line has moved from Washington +117 down to Washington +101.  This is an indicator that larger bets are coming in on Washington, more than balancing the public’s smaller bets on the SF Giants. 

Both of these teams are playing around .400 ball – and we like the “home dog” to give us some value.  Take the Nationals at home and grab the +110 still available at SIA. 

Washington Nationals +110 (SIA)

Games to Watch (1-7, -5.5 units)

Pittsburgh Pirates +150 (SIA)

San Diego Padres +140

Washington Nationals +110 (SIA)

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com