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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistJune 29, 2018

New York Yankees starting pitcher CC Sabathia delivers to the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning of a baseball game Friday, June 22, 2018, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

First place in the American League East standings will again be on the line starting Friday when the New York Yankees (52-26) host the Boston Red Sox (55-27) in the series opener of a three-game set as small home favorites at the sportsbooks.

The Red Sox come into this matchup riding a four-game winning streak following a three-match sweep of the Los Angeles Angels at home, while the Yankees have dropped four of six.

          

MLB betting line: The Yankees opened as -115 favorites (wager $115 to win $100); the total is at nine runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 4.7-4.6, Yankees (MLB picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

        

Why the Red Sox can pay on the MLB lines

Boston is back atop the AL East and will realize the division title could be decided during the last weekend when the teams meet at Fenway Park to close out the regular season in September.

The Red Sox will try to stay ahead here behind southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (9-2, 3.86 ERA), who has lost only one of his past seven starts. That just happened to come last time out when the 25-year-old surrendered four earned runs and seven hits in four innings of a 7-2 loss to the Seattle Mariners.

Prior to that, he had given up two runs or less each time in winning six straight outings.

             

Why the Yankees can pay on the MLB lines

New York has gone 5-3 in the previous eight meetings between the teams overall but a more impressive 4-1 in the last five at home, according to the OddsShark MLB Database. In fact, the Yankees have lost just four times in the past 12 home meetings, including once earlier this year.

The Yankees will turn to veteran lefty CC Sabathia (4-3, 3.18 ERA) in this spot, hoping he can break a personal two-game skid as a tough-luck loser.

The 37-year-old has seen his teammates score one run in each of the last two games he has started, and he has surrendered four earned runs in 13 total innings during that stretch.

               

Smart betting pick

Boston would seem to be a good bet as an underdog, but it has struggled under that scenario this season. The Red Sox are just 3-6 in their previous nine games as underdogs and 5-6 overall this year.

Meanwhile, New York is 20-10 in its last 30 games as a favorite, suffering through a losing streak of two or more in that role once over the last month.

Since the Yankees are coming off a loss, take them to bounce back.

           

MLB betting trends

Boston is 6-1 in its last seven games.

New York is 6-1 in its last seven games at home.

The total has gone under in 20 of New York's last 22 games.

            

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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