UFC Fight Night 131 Predictions: Main Card Staff Picks
This Friday night, the UFC comes to Utica, New York for UFC Fight Night 131. It's a rare Friday show on the heels of a rare Sunday showโand a Sunday morning show at that. A sign of the end times? Such things are not for us to know.
What we do know is that UFC Utica has a cracking good main event. Jimmie Rivera is flawless in five UFC bouts, and Marlon Moraes isn't far behind. The latter was a dominant champion in World Series of Fighting, and a split-decision loss to the great Raphael Assuncao is the only blemish on his UFC record to date.
The winner of this bout will be on a very short list to challenge the winner of the August rematch between Cody Garbrandt and bantamweight champ T.J. Dillashaw.
That's the last bout on this six-fight main card. We're here to make our picks for each one. Matthew Ryder,ย Nathan McCarter, Steven Rondina and myself, Scott Harris. Let's get it on.
Gian Villante vs. Sam Alvey
1 of 6
Matthew Ryder
Smilin' Sam Alvey returns to light heavyweight for a bout with Gian Villante to open the main card. Heโs 6-2 in his last eight and has some good wins over Rashad Evans, Nate Marquardt and Kevin Casey sprinkled in there. Villante is pretty hit-or-miss overall, owner of a plodding style founded on seeking a home run punch in every exchange.ย
Alvey stays out of trouble, avoids the big bomb and wins on points.
Alvey, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
Alvey has better prospects at middleweight than light heavyweight, especially against a guy like Villante. This is tailormade for Villante to dominate. If Alvey wants to throw hands, Villante's physical presence will win out over three rounds. If he wants to grapple, Alvey will succumb there as well. Light heavyweight vs. middleweight. Light heavyweight wins.
Villante, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Man, I don't see good things happening from Alvey moving up to 205 pounds. Middleweight is the right division for him, and while Villante isn't exactly a world-beater, he should be able to give him a good reminder of that.ย
Villante, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
This is a light heavyweight bout disguised as a heavyweight bout. Two guys reeling around the cage looking for a knockout. Alvey is smart and agile enough to avoid Villante's fight-finishing power but lands a few sharp strikes of his own to sway the judges.
Alvey, unanimous decision
Julio Arce vs. Daniel Teymur
2 of 6
Ryder
Arce is rugged and underrated and Daniel Teymur is a guy people were high on when he hit the UFC as a 6-0 prospect with a rich muayย thai background. Julio Arce won his way into the UFCย Dana Whiteโs Contender Seriesย and won his debut with a fairly convincing decision at UFC 220, Teymur lost his UFC debut in a bonus-winning performance against Danny Henry last summer.
This might be your Fight of the Night. Look for Arce to come out on top.
Arce, unanimous decision
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McCarter
This should be a competitive contest. It's decent filler but likely should be on the preliminaryย card instead of the main. Daniel's brother David (also on this card) is a top-end talent, Daniel is not quite there. I'll still take Daniel. Arce will make it difficult, but Teymur does enough to squeak it out.
Teymur, unanimous decision
Rondina
Arce is somebody that could go somewhere, but right now? This is Teymur time, and he'll likely allot 15 minutes of it to out-working Arce en route to a unanimous decision win
Teymur, unanimous decision
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Harris
I agree with Ryderโthis is my pick for Fight of the Night. Teymur has good muay thai but Arce's boxing is better. There will be plenty of exchanges, and my guess is Arce lands some solid shots and hands Teymur the first stoppage loss of his career.
Arce, TKO, Rd. 3
Jake Ellenberger vs. Ben Saunders
3 of 6
Ryder
This one should provide some excitement, as both guys have a go-for-broke approach to combat. There's also the added intrigue of a "loser leaves town" stipulation, as a loss for Jake Ellenberger has him at 2-8 in his last 10 and one for Ben Saunders would be three straight and four in his last six fights.
Ellenberger is still a power puncher, and Saunders is susceptible to getting clipped and finished. That's what happens here.
Ellenberger, TKO, Rd. 1
McCarter
I think Matthew has this one right. Saunders gets caught and Ellenberger throws heat. That's not the best combo, although it is worthy of mentioning that Ellenberger's chin isn't great either. But he has shown a higher ceiling than Saunders ever has so I'll still take him.
Ellenberger, TKO, Rd. 1
Rondina
Excuse me gentlemen, but are we talking about the same Jake Ellenberger here? Because the Ellenberger I know hasn't been a legitimate knockout artist since GSP was welterweight champ! It's possible he'll be able to clip Saunders, but the more likely outcome is a boring slog that ends with Saunders' hand raised.
Saunders, unanimous decision
Harris
I was surprised to see Ellenberger's name here. He hasn't fought in more than a year and suffered two straight knockouts before that, so I just kind of assumed he was done. Maybe Killa B can clear it up for me.
Saunders, TKO, Rd. 2
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Walt Harris vs. Daniel Spitz
4 of 6
Ryder
Harris sits at 4-6 in the UFC and returns to the scene of his last loss in New York state, where he was DQ'd for an illegal head kick of all things. Daniel Spitz is young and on the come-up, impressively dispatching Anthony Hamilton in his last bout.
Seems like the UFC is setting Walt Harris up to fail here, but I donโt think he does. Heโs oddly entering his heavyweight prime at 34 years old and should rely on his wrestling to take a decision.
Harris, unanimous decision
McCarter
Harris has back-to-back losses, but that is a loss to Fabricio Werdum and a DQ. When adding in context, Harris is still on the rise. He's a solid favorite and I'm inclined to stick with him. This will probably be an ugly, boring fight.
Harris, unanimous decision
Rondina
Most of Harris' losses have some manner of asterisk next to them...and he still punches ridiculously hard. I'm not going to label him a world-beater, but I'm definitely willing to give him the nod over an unproven Spitz.
Harris, TKO, Rd. 1
Harris
Spitz is still unproven with a 1-1 UFC record. Harris hits like a truck but needs to put some wins together after losing two straight. His experience will give him the edge here.
Harris, KO, Rd. 2
Gregor Gillespie vs. Vince Pichel
5 of 6
Ryder
MMAโs favorite fisherman fighting a guy from someย TUFย season. As a co-main event.
Iโm taking Gillespie here. Heโs younger and has been more active in recent years, and he has the home state push to take him over the top.
Gillespie, unanimous decision
McCarter
This is a terrible co-main event. And it is here for no other reason than to showcase Gillespie. He'll style on Pichel.
Gillespie, TKO, Rd. 1
Rondina
I'm not quite as down on this co-main event as Nathan is, but I do agree with his pick. Gillespie has a strong wrestling resume to go along with his MMA finishing skills, making him one of the most compelling up-and-comers in the UFC.ย Pichel is winning fightsย but lacks the upside that Gillespie does.
Gillespie, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
This could be a fun fight. And any publicity for Gillespie is good publicity at this point. It's about time the talented and likable lightweight got a good push. He'll use his outstanding wrestling to neutralize Pichel's legit striking and create a finish.
Gillespie, submission, Rd. 1
Jimmie Rivera vs. Marlon Moraes
6 of 6
Ryder
Jimmie Rivera is the forgotten excellence of the bantamweight class, 21-1 with wins over Urijah Faber and Thomas Almeida in his last two appearances. He's ranked No. 4 in the class, but you can't help but feel he could get a title shot with a win here.
Marlon Moraes is nasty in his own right, correcting course in his UFC career after dropping his debut in the promotion. He's posted three split decisions and a vicious finish so far, and he maybe doesn't feel as ascendant right now as Rivera does.
No real technical thoughts here on my end. My gut just tells me Rivera gets it done.
Rivera, unanimous decision
McCarter
This not-so-great fight card has a truly magnificent main event. Title eliminator to boot? Possibly.
Rivera is unsung to be sure, but I'm going with Moraes. He stumbled out of the gate in his UFC debut, but the sensational KO over Aljamain Sterling is more indicative of where he stands in the MMA stratosphere. Moraes is special. Rivera is very good. Special beats very good most of the time and this will be one of those times. He finds the mark and finishes Rivera to make his claim as the next challenger for gold.
Moraes, TKO, Rd. 3
Rondina
This is indeed the only good fight on this card...but it's a doozy. Rivera, in my book, is ever-so-slightly more proven against elite competition. Moraes is no doubt great, but I think Rivera will be able to squeak his way to a decision win.
Rivera, unanimous decision
Harris
Just to echo what has already been said, yes, this is the lone bright spot on what is, on paper, a pretty dull card. Both of these guys are good, but the slighter Moraes won't be able to impose his will on Rivera when it comes to the ground. That won't be an escape hatch for Moraes this time. Rivera will keep it standing and punch his way through Moraes' muay thai.
Rivera, unanimous decision
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