Washington Capitals vs. Vegas Golden Knights: Game 1 Odds, NHL Betting Pick

One of the most improbable matchups in NHL championship history will begin on Monday when the Vegas Golden Knights host the Washington Capitals as solid home favorites for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final.

The Golden Knights are the first expansion team to make it to the last round of the postseason since the St. Louis Blues were swept by the Montreal Canadiens in 1968, when four of six new teams battled it out in the playoffs for the right to play for the Stanley Cup.

NHL betting line: The Golden Knights opened as -139 favorites (wager $139 to win $100); the total is at 5.5 goals, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NHL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 2.7-2.6, Capitals (NHL picks on every game)

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Why the Capitals can pay on the NHL lines

The Capitals are a remarkable 13-2 in their last 15 road games, including 8-2 this postseason, according to the OddsShark NHL Database.

That has helped them exorcise some demons during their current run this year, as they clinched series wins in each of the previous three rounds away from home, capped by a 4-0 victory against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Washington also knocked out the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins on the road in Game 6 after losing to them in the second round the previous two years.

Led by future Hall of Famer Alex Ovechkin, the Capitals have more than enough physicality and experience to lean on here even though they will not start with home-ice advantage.

Why the Golden Knights can pay on the NHL lines

Vegas is no ordinary expansion team obviously, as one of the six new clubs added to the league for the 1967/68 season was guaranteed to play one of the Original Six for the Stanley Cup. The Blues survived versus the Philadelphia Flyers and Minnesota North Stars back then after each series went a full seven games.

This year, the Golden Knights have gone a remarkable 12-3 in the playoffs behind goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who is coming off a career year despite missing 36 games due to injury during the regular season.

Fleury has posted an NHL-best four shutouts this postseason to go along with a .947 save percentage and 1.68 goals-against average.

In addition, Vegas has gone an impressive 8-1 in its last nine home games at T-Mobile Arena, with the lone loss coming in double overtime in Game 2 to the San Jose Sharks in the second round.

Smart betting pick

The long layoff will probably hurt Washington more in this spot because the Eastern Conference champs would have likely preferred to stay active and keep rolling. Instead, the Capitals were forced to take a break and may lose some of their momentum while the Golden Knights enjoyed a similar hiatus after the first two rounds.

That, along with the fact Vegas general manager George McPhee served in the same role for Washington between 1997 and 2014 and knows his former employers well, will give the home team a decided edge. Take the Golden Knights to win the series opener.

NHL betting trends

Washington is 12-5 in its last 17 games.

Washington is 13-2 in its last 15 games on the road.

Vegas is 8-1 in its last nine games at home.

All NHL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.