Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets: Game 7 Odds, NBA Betting Pick

The second-seeded Golden State Warriors will attempt to advance to the NBA Finals for the fourth straight season Monday when they visit the top-seeded Houston Rockets as solid road favorites at the sportsbooks for Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are awaiting the winner, and the odds obviously favor the Warriors meeting them for the fourth time in as many years.

NBA point spread: The Warriors opened as six-point favorites; the total is at 209, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 106.0-102.6, Warriors (NBA picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Warriors can cover the spread

Golden State proved again in Game 6 that no opponent's lead is safe, overcoming a 39-22 deficit at the end of the first quarter to win 115-86 and send the series back to Houston.

The Warriors got a game-high 35 points from Klay Thompson, who made 9-of-14 attempts from beyond the three-point arc, and 52 more combined between Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant.

The Warriors' defense was definitely the difference after halftime, though, holding the Rockets to just 25 points, including nine in the fourth quarter.

The only time Golden State has lost a playoff series under head coach Steve Kerr came in the 2016 NBA Finals when Cleveland rallied from a 3-1 deficit to pull off the upset.

Why the Rockets can cover the spread

Defense is the name of the game and fueled the Rockets to surprising wins in Games 4 and 5 after they trailed the series 2-1 to the Warriors. They will need a similar effort in Game 7, likely slowing the tempo down and relying on James Harden to make big shots.

With Chris Paul (hamstring) listed as a game-time decision after missing Game 6, Harden will need to be the hero and hope his teammates can come through too when they are open.

Houston made nearly the same amount of three-pointers as Golden State (15 compared to 16) in Game 6, so the team must simply make easier shots inside the arc, avoid turnovers and play better defensively in front of the home crowd.

Smart betting pick

After watching the Warriors light it up in the second half of Game 6, it is hard to imagine them reverting back to the team that struggled late in the previous two. Even if Paul plays, he will be hobbled and potentially do more harm than good.

Golden State is 10-5 both straight up and against the spread in its last 15 road playoff games, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, and will prevail with a win and cover here.

NBA betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of Golden State's last nine games.

Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last six games on the road.

The total has gone under in 16 of Houston's last 23 games at home.

All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.