Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets: Game 5 Odds, NBA Betting Pick

The top-seeded Houston Rockets head home for Game 5 of the NBA Western Conference Finals on Thursday tied up at 2-2 with the second-seeded Golden State Warriors, who are listed as small road favorites on the moving line at the sportsbooks.

Golden State is also still a favorite to win the series despite falling 95-92 in Game 4 on Tuesday, with Houston closing as a 7.5-point road underdog.

NBA point spread: The Rockets opened as one-point favorites; the total is at 220.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 108.4-103.2, Rockets. (NBA picks on every game)

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Why the Warriors can cover the spread

The NBA champion Warriors had a surprisingly poor fourth quarter in Game 4 at home, getting outscored 25-12 after building a 10-point lead.

The Rockets led 53-46 at halftime after trailing 28-19 at the end of the first, showing just how lopsided each of the four quarters were.

The key for Golden State obviously is to finish stronger, something that was not an issue during the team's wins in Games 1 and 3.

Considering how the results have alternated throughout the series so far, there could be a bounce-back performance here on the road by the Warriors.

Why the Rockets can cover the spread

Houston should have a lot of confidence going into Game 5 after an outstanding defensive effort at Golden State, where the team had not won in seven previous playoff games, according to the OddsShark NBA Database.

The Rockets also failed to cover the spread in the previous five road games versus the Warriors in the postseason, so they may have finally gotten the monkey off their back and proved they can be competitive with a berth in the NBA Finals on the line.

If James Harden and Chris Paul can continue their strong play too, they will have a shot to win Game 5 and the series.

Smart betting pick

This could be the toughest game to predict, not only in this series but the playoffs overall. There have been such extreme performances from both teams, with Houston shocking almost everyone in how Game 4 was won.

Who would have thought a team coached by Mike D'Antoni could tighten the screws defensively on the road in the final quarter and pull off a stunning upset?

With that said, take the Rockets again.

NBA betting trends

Golden State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games on the road against Houston.

The total has gone under in five of Houston's last seven games.

The total has gone under in 15 of Houston's last 22 games at home.

All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.