Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics Game 5 Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

The second-seeded Boston Celtics will try to close out the third-seeded Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday when they host them as small home underdogs in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference second-round playoff series.

The Celtics are coming off their first loss after winning the first three games, falling 103-92 to the 76ers on Monday and failing to cover as seven-point underdogs.

NBA point spread: The 76ers opened as one-point favorites; the total is at 204, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 104.0-103.2, Celtics (NBA picks on every game)

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Why the 76ers can cover the spread

Oddsmakers obviously still view Philadelphia as the better team in this matchup, making Boston the underdog for the fifth straight time. The 76ers hope they sent that same message to the Celtics with the rout in Game 4 to avoid a sweep, as Dario Saric stepped up with 25 points after totaling that same number in the previous two combined.

Philadelphia got better scoring from its starters overall, with four ending up in double figures, including Ben Simmons and T.J. O'Connell, who each had 19 points. The 76ers also turned in their best defensive performance of the series, with no Boston player scoring more than 20 points and the opposition shooting just 41.3 percent as a team.

Why the Celtics can cover the spread

The Celtics have been outstanding at home this entire postseason and will lean on that key strength again in Game 5. They are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread in the playoffs at TD Garden so far, according to the OddsShark NBA Database.

The Celtics are also an impressive 10-1 SU and ATS in their last 11 games there dating back to the end of the regular season, defeating Philadelphia by a total of 21 points in Games 1 and 2. As long as the team continues to play hard with that edge, another win seems likely.

Smart betting pick

It took the 76ers a while to wake up in this series, and they would like to think it is not too late to become the first team ever to recover from a 3-0 deficit and advance. History says otherwise, though, and Boston's home-court advantage is too good to overlook. Since an upset win here also means covering the spread, take the Celtics.

NBA betting trends

Philadelphia is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games.

Philadelphia is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games on the road.

The total has gone over in 11 of Boston's last 15 games.

All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.