2018 Kentucky Derby: Projecting Order of Finish and Payouts for Entire Field
One of the fastest and most exciting events on the sports calendar takes place Saturday, as the Kentucky Derby is run for the 144th time at Churchill Downs.
Dubbed "the most exciting two minutes in sports," the first leg of horse racing's Triple Crown garners plenty of attention from the sport's enthusiasts and those with money on the competition.
Justify comes into Saturday's race as the favorite, but there are a few other horses with good odds looking to claim the majority of the $2 million purse in the winner's circle. 2017 champion Always Dreaming received $1.425 million of the $2 million purse.
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At the moment, Justify's odds sit at +350, per OddsShark, which would earn a bettor $350 if they bet $100.
Five other horses have odds of less than +1000, which means the best chance at a heavy betting payout from wagering on a single horse would come from selecting an underdog with long odds.
Projected Order of Finish (Odds via OddsShark)
1. Justify (+350; Bet $100 to win $350)
2. Bolt d'Oro (+900)
3. Audible (+550)
4. Vino Rosso (+1400)
5. Noble Indy (+2800)
6. Mendelssohn (+400)
7. Hofburg (+1600)
8. Enticed (+2500)
9. Magnum Moon (+700)
10. Good Magic (+900)
11. Free Drop Billy (+3300)
12. My Boy Jack (+2200)
13. Combatant (+6600)
14. Lone Sailor (+5000)
15. Promises Fulfilled (+4000)
16. Firenze Fire (+6600)
17. Flameaway (+4000)
18. Solomini (+2000)
19. Instilled Regard (+5000)
20. Bravazo (+5000)
Justify Lives Up to the Hype
Although picking Justify to win at +300 won't manufacture the best payout, he's as close to a sure thing as possible.
Justify has an ideal starting position from post No. 7, and there's an experienced group led by jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert behind him.
Baffert, who is one of the most successful trainers in horse racing, helped prepare Justify for the racing circuit this year since he didn't compete as a two-year-old.
The early returns from Justify are positive, and there's a possibility he can go after the Triple Crown once he triumphs at Churchill Downs.
Don't expect Justify to be in front from the start, but look for the favorite to work his way to the head of the field in the middle of the race and then cruise to the finish line.
Of course there's always potential for the worst-case scenario to happen, which leaves Justify in the pack while another horse crosses the line in first.
However, there's no reason to believe based off Justify's past performances that is going to be the case.
Todd Pletcher's Horses Try to Dictate Pace
The luxury of having four horses in a field of 20 is you can dictate the pace if everything works out.
That should be the plan for Todd Pletcher's quartet of competitors spread across the starting grid.
Audible contains the best chance of the four to win the race, and he is in good shape starting from post No. 5, but he may have to wait for one of his stable mates to move to the front of the pack.
Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy start in posts No. 16. No. 18 and No. 19, respectively, which forces them to do a little extra work moving to the inside of the course.
Once the pack comes together, look for Vino Rosso and Noble Indy to move into the lead positions in an attempt to set the stage for Audible.
Because the pair of horses set a controlling pace, they'll remain near the top of the leaderboard when the field finishes.
Magnum Moon will make the first move of the two favored horses trained by Pletcher, but the attempt is going to cost him and leave him in the dust.
Audible should make a strong run at Justify, but the favorite is going to have too much for one of his toughest competitors to handle.
After a late surge by Bolt d'Oro, Audible takes a respectable third place in a race that could give Pletcher four top-10 horses.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
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