Kentucky Derby 2018 Post Positions: Field Info, Horses Odds and Predictions
The Kentucky Derby will return for its 144th edition Saturday, with a 20-horse field looking to etch their name into horse racing lore.
The field descending upon Churchill Downs features five horses with 11-1 odds or better, so it figures to be a competitive race to kick off this year's pursuit of the Triple Crown.
Saturday's race is marked by favorites who are looking to break longtime trends to become the champion. Justify is the favorite, but he will be looking to break a streak that goes back to 1882—that was the last time a horse that wasn't two won the Derby.
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Mendelssohn also comes in as one of the horses with the best odds, but no horse who won the UAE Derby has come stateside to win the Kentucky Derby. Either one of the favorites is going to make history or a relative underdog is going to become a household name after the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.
Here's a look at the complete field by post position and their odds, according to OddsShark. Predictions for some of the more intriguing horses in the field follow:
1. Firenze Fire 66-1
2. Free Drop Billy 33-1
3. Promises Fulfilled 40-1
4. Flameaway 50-1
5. Audible 5-1
6. Good Magic 9-1
7. Justify 13-4
8. Lone Sailor 50-1
9. Hofburg 16-1
10. My Boy Jack 33-1
11. Bolt d'Oro 11-1
12. Enticed 25-1
13. Bravazo 33-1
14. Mendelssohn 9-2
15. Instilled Regard 50-1
16. Magnum Moon 7-1
17. Solomini 14-1
18. Vino Rosso 14-1
19. Noble Indy 25-1
20. Combatant 100-1
Predictions
Justify
Backing the odds-on favorite might not be exciting, but it can be profitable. There is a reason Justify is listed as a favorite despite not racing as a two-year-old. He's undefeated as a three-year-old and is crushing the competition every time out.
The No. 7 post is a good position to start from too. It isn't so far outside that he will have to make up early ground to get inside but not so far inside he's likely to get boxed in from the outset. Managing the large field will be important, and he's set up to do so with his draw post.
Overall, the favorite has been the smart choice in Kentucky recently:
Justify's Beyer Speed Figure was 107 at the Santa Anita Derby, which is higher than any other horse in the field in any given race. Flat out, Justify is the fastest horse at the Derby. It doesn't mean he will rise to the occasion or that he will manage the field on the way to victory, but it is the easiest pick on the board.
However, Justify's backers are betting against a lot of history. There's reason to believe the Bob Baffert-owned colt might not live up to the hype. He will put in a strong showing, but picking against the Apollo Curse is too much.
Prediction: Fourth place
Audible
Audible is a sneaky good pick to win the whole thing Saturday. The colt is third-favorite, according to the odds, but he doesn't have the history working against him that Justify and Mendelssohn do. He's a strong contender to win with an excellent record racing in the States.
Winning the Florida Derby is the crown jewel of his resume, and that's been a good precursor to Derby success. Both Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017) both won the race en route to Kentucky Derby victories in the past two years.
Audible's post position is helpful too; the No. 5 spot has yielded five champions in the past 21 years.
Handicapper Matt Dinerman broke down why Audible is his favorite to win the race:
If you're not willing to roll the dice on one of the longer shots but want to stay away from the chalk, Audible is the horse to consider. With a good track record and a proven versatility, he's a great bet to at least place.
Prediction: Second place
Good Magic
If you're looking for a bit of a long shot to believe in, Good Magic is the perfect candidate. At 9-1, he's far from the conventional choice but not far enough out of the realm of possibility that victory is impossible.
As Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone notes, Good Magic is garnering buzz as the race approaches, and his odds are only getting better as race day approaches. As Stone predicted, the colt is already down to single digits:
The colt won the Eclipse Award as the champion two-year-old male of 2017 and parlayed that success into some success as a three-year-old. He won the Blue Grass Stakes last time out, and those who have watched him prepare in Louisville believe he's going to run his best race yet Saturday:
"Really like the way Good Magic worked just now, @BreedersCup winner looks like he's moving forward and will run best race as a 3yo next week. Tough field but he's doing well #Derbywatch
— Jay Privman (@DRFPrivman) April 28, 2018"
Good Magic doesn't quite have the track record of some of the other horses in the field. However, he's hit 100 in his Beyer Speed Figures, which is enough to run with the top of the pack. If he's able to show as much improvement as some believes he will, he will give his backers a big payday.
Prediction: First place
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