Kentucky Derby 2018 Post Positions: Updated Picks and Predictions After Draw
Plenty of factors come into play when making selections for the Kentucky Derby.
The race is fast, but the minutes, hours and days building up to the first leg of the Triple Crown can be agonizing for those involved with the horses and bettors looking to cash in.
After Tuesday's post drawing, five horses have odds of better than 10-1 to win Saturday's race at Churchill Downs.
While the favorites may not produce the biggest payout, they are reliable picks to count on when making your final betting decision.
Post Positions
Picks and Predictions
Justify
While picking the favorite might not seem like any fun given the lack of risk involved, it's been the smart pick recently at Churchill Downs.
In each of the last five years, the favorite has won the Kentucky Derby, per ESPN Stats and Info:
Justify, who started racing as a three-year-old, is the current favorite to win Saturday's race after triumphing in three contests, including the Santa Anita Derby in April.
Although he hasn't competed as much as the other horses in the field, Justify has the look of a champion, according to trainer Bob Baffert, per Dan Wolken of USA Today.
"When I worked him the first time at Santa Anita, he did something really incredible in the morning," Baffert said. "The time wasn't that fast, but just the way he did it.
"There's nothing like knowing you have a horse like that and you go, man," Baffert said. "You just know this is the goods right here. This is the goods."
Justify has plenty of experience in his corner, with three-time Kentucky Derby winner Baffert as his trainer and jockey Mike Smith on board, who has won four Triple Crown races, including the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard Giacomo.
If Justify wins, he would be the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the prized race without racing as a two-year-old.
The stakes are high for a horse that hasn't been involved in a ton of major races, but the team preparing Justify for the Kentucky Derby are some of the best around.
Prediction: Winner
Mendelssohn
While Justify is aiming to break the "Curse of Apollo," Mendelssohn is trying to make history of his own by becoming the first European-trained horse to win the Kentucky Derby.
Mendelssohn comes to Kentucky with three consecutive wins, including the 2017 Breeders Cup juvenile turf and 2018 UAE Derby.
However, there's still one major hump for Mendelssohn to overcome, and that is success on one of horse racing's top stages.
It is encouraging that the horse, who starts from the No. 14 post position, has raced in the United States before and won, as he did in November in the Breeders Cup.
Mendelssohn comes from the same bloodline as Justify, as both were bred by Scat Daddy, who won the 2007 Florida Derby and finished 18th in the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
But the horse trained by Irishman Aidan O'Brien faces a bit of a disadvantage entering Saturday since he is starting on the outside and has to work his way in during the opening part of the race.
O'Brien and jockey Ryan Moore are accomplished in Europe and have found success in Breeders Cup events, but they are both looking for their Kentucky Derby breakthrough.
Mendelssohn is potentially the best bet for the duo to taste Triple Crown glory, but it's going to be a tough race for the three-year-old to run, and he'll come up just short in the end.
Prediction: Third
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
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