Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Game 3 Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

The sixth-seeded Miami Heat will look to take a 2-1 lead in their first-round Eastern Conference playoff series against the third-seeded Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday as small home underdogs at the sportsbooks.

Miami ended Philadelphia's 17-game winning streak on Monday with a 113-103 victory in Game 2.

NBA point spread: The 76ers opened as one-point favorites; the total is at 216.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 116.8-103.6, 76ers (NBA picks on every game)

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Why the 76ers can cover the spread

The 76ers have not lost consecutive games since February 27, coincidentally falling to the Heat 102-101 as one-point road underdogs that day. This time around, Philadelphia is the small road favorite and looking to get back on track by taking the series lead back following a 130-103 rout of Miami in Game 1.

The 76ers are not expected to have All-Star center Joel Embiid (broken orbital) available again, as he is listed as doubtful on the injury report. However, they have played well without him, going 9-1 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in the 10 games he has missed since he collided with teammate Markelle Fultz on March 28.

Why the Heat can cover the spread

The Heat hope Dwyane Wade can continue to turn back the clock and perform like he did in Game 2, when he scored a game-high 28 points in 26 minutes off the bench.

Wade was outstanding during the second quarter as he scored 15 points and then down the stretch for his best performance since rejoining the team before the trade deadline.

Wade scored just 11 points in Game 1 and will likely be energized by the home crowd along with the rest of his teammates upon Miami's return to American Airlines Arena. The Heat have now won three of the past four meetings SU, going 2-1-1 ATS, according to the OddsShark NBA Database. 

Smart betting pick

Until Embiid takes the court in this series, Philadelphia will continue to be a wild card. His frustrations keep growing, and that may start rubbing off on his teammates, affecting their play as well.

For that reason, Miami is a much better pick in Game 3, especially since the team is also an impressive 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog in the postseason. Take the Heat to beat the 76ers in a small upset.

NBA betting trends

Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games.

Miami is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games.

The total has gone over in five of Philadelphia's last seven games.

All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.