Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Odds, NHL Playoff Betting Pick

The Pittsburgh Penguins (47-29-6) will begin the defense of their Stanley Cup for the second year in a row on Wednesday when they host the Philadelphia Flyers (42-26-14) as home favorites for Game 1 of their first-round NHL playoff series.

The two-time defending champs finished with 11 points less than they totaled last season, while the Flyers are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016—when they fell 4-2 to the Washington Capitals in the first round.

NHL betting line: The Penguins opened as -175 favorites (wager $175 to win $100); the total is at six goals, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NHL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 2.9-2.7, Flyers (NHL picks on every game)

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Why the Flyers can pay on the NHL lines

Philadelphia had just two points less than Pittsburgh in the regular season and was a much better road team with a 20-13-8 mark. The Flyers also went 6-1-3 in their last 10 games, and they enter the postseason on a two-game winning streak.

Their last four losses were all decided by only one goal, so they have been extremely competitive recently, even in defeat. In fact, just one of Philadelphia's previous seven losses were decided by more than one goal, and that happened almost a month ago.

Why the Penguins can pay on the NHL lines

The Penguins, currently at +1000 on the Stanley Cup odds, swept the regular-season series with the Flyers 4-0, although two of those games were decided in overtime.

While Philadelphia has been tough to beat lately, the team's defense has left a lot to be desired. The Flyers have surrendered three goals or more in eight of their last 10 games.

Pittsburgh's offense has been running on all cylinders heading into the playoffs, generating four goals or more in winning four of five to close out the campaign. In addition, the Penguins have scored at least four goals in each of their previous seven wins, with four decided by two or more.

Smart betting pick

There should be no shortage of goals in this series considering the defensive shortcomings for both teams. All four meetings during the regular season went over the total, according to the OddsShark NHL Database, along with seven of the last eight games between them dating back to 2016.

And because you can make an argument for either team winning Game 1, the over looks like the smarter pick in the series opener.

NHL betting trends

The total has gone over in nine of Philadelphia's last 12 games.

The total has gone over in seven of Pittsburgh's last nine games.

Pittsburgh is 4-1 in its last five games against Philadelphia.

All NHL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.