Nevada, Boise State, Strength Of Schedule and The BCS: Time For a Change

Let's consider some important facts about BSU. Yes, they have a great record and have gone undefeated a couple of seasons recently. Yes they beat Oklahoma in 2007. Yes they beat Oregon in 2008 with a deadly combination of inspired play and illegal, helmet to helmet late hits that took out several key players and resulted in the ejection of BSU’s hit man Jeron Johnson. Yes, they beat Oregon again in 2009 despite paltry offensive production. Yes, they are a very, very good team. But they are probably over-ranked. Here’s why.

It is impossible to rank teams across different conferences based on won-loss records. A 8-4 team in one conference may well be better than a 12-0 team in another. Strength of schedule matters. Is a 12-0 team with an easy schedule better than a 8-4 team with an insanely tough one? To make matters even worse, we actually crown a national champion based largely upon their won-loss record. The current system is absurd and does a huge diservice to the players, the schools and the public. BSU is currently ranked 4th in the nation yet will likely be passed over for a shot at the national crown. For all we know, they may well be the best team in the country. Then again, they may be over-ranked because of a combination of weak schedule and a great record. A national playoff would be a far better method and give every conference an equal chance at the title.

The key reason BSU gets no respect by the BCS and will likely be bypassed is because of their non-conference schedule, one that ranks near the bottom of the WAC.  Depending on the SOS you look at, BSU is somewhere around 55-70. Except for Oregon, they do not play any ranked teams in their non-conference schedule. Miami (OH), BGSU and Tulsa just don’t cut it. They need at least one more ranked non-conference game to be taken seriously.  But, this summer their AD admitted publicly that they consciously avoid tough non-conference games in order to maximize their chances of running the table. It has nothing to do with the “no one wants to play us, we’re so good” mythology. They publicly admitted it. They dodge tough games, and it shows. Except for the Fiesta Bowl where trick plays made the difference, they have lost their all their bowl games in recent years. Incidentally, some conferences, like the PAC 10 disallow trick plays that have an "overt intent to decieve". 

But here’s the key observation that everyone ignores. There is a team that has scored 101 points against BSU just in the past two seasons. That’s right! A team capable of running and passing the ball down the throat of the mighty BSU Broncos to the tune of 101 points in just two games. No one else has ever done that. That same team managed to lose both of those games by a total combined 9 points. That team battered BSU in the second half of their last meeting and outscored the Broncos 31-17 visibly dominating the line. Who is it that has come perilously close to shocking BSU…it’s the team BSU fears the most, more than even Oregon. That team is the Nevada Wolf Pack.

While BSU feasts on easy prey, in the past 3 seasons Nevada has taken on, Notre Dame, Missouri (twice), Texas Tech, Nebraska and Northwestern when most were ranked in the top 25. Heck last year they took on Mizzou and Texas Tech when they were in the top 10! Yes they have gotten their teeth kicked in doing so. But that is how you get better. It showed once the Wolf Pack faced more comparable teams. They exploded for over 130 points in their last three games.

If BSU is over-rated, Nevada is under – rated. Do not be surprised if Nevada beats BSU this year, November 27, on the blue…   And if they don't and BSU runs the table, then dammit, they deserve a shot at Florida, Alabama, Texas or USC.