Syracuse Orange vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

Both Arizona State and Syracuse started out well this season, but both struggled through their conference slates and should consider themselves lucky to receive invitations to the NCAA tournament. Who's the better bet when the Orange meet the Sun Devils in the final First Four matchup Wednesday night in Dayton, Ohio?

March Madness point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em; the total is at 142.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 77.0-68.2, Sun Devils (March Madness picks on every game)

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Why Syracuse can cover the spread

The Orange started 12-2 this season, with wins over Big Dance invitees Iona, Texas Southern, Buffalo and Virginia Tech, and the losses coming against Kansas and St. Bonaventure (in overtime). Syracuse then stumbled a bit through its ACC slate, losing close games to the likes of Notre Dame, Virginia, Florida State, North Carolina State and North Carolina. But in the end, needing a couple of victories to make the NCAA tournament, the Orange beat Clemson in the regular-season finale and Wake Forest in the ACC tournament to secure an at-large bid.

So Syracuse is back in the Big Dance after missing out last year. On the season the Orange played 15 games against teams that made the NCAA tournament, going 6-9, and four of those losses came by six points or less, two in OT. Two years ago Syracuse also just barely made the Dance before making a run to the Final Four.

Why Arizona State can cover the spread

The Sun Devils started hot this season, winning their first 12 games, knocking off San Diego State, Kansas State, Xavier and Kansas along the way. And the Musketeers and Jayhawks both went on to become No. 1 seeds for this NCAA tournament. Arizona State then cooled, later reached 7-6 in Pac-12 play but lost four of its last five games. The Sun Devils then lost their conference tournament opener to Colorado but their early work ended up earning them their first NCAA tournament bid since 2014.

On the season Arizona State is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS against teams that made the Big Dance. The Sun Devils can throw it in the hole at a pretty good rate; they've hit the 90-point mark nine times this season and the 80-point mark six times in their last nine games. They're also 17-5 this season when holding opponents to under 80 points.

Smart betting pick

Arizona State has the potential to light up the scoreboard just about any time out, led by a trio of senior guards who together are averaging almost 48 points per game. But Syracuse plays the better defense, holding opponents to under 40 percent field-goal shooting on the season. And in matchups like this, the better defense is usually the better bet.

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