USC at Home? Oregon State Still Has a Chance

History is not QUITE against OSU.  Look at their record at USC and it isn’t pretty.  Recently? Fuhgettaboutit.

There are a few things working for them, however.  If USC is to lose, let’s look at them first.  They lost their only game at home in the Pete Carroll era against a Stanford team that had far less talent than this Oregon State team. 

So it CAN be done, although it’s a rare event. 

When does USC lose under Pete Carroll? Mostly after a big game.  Washington this year after Ohio State, Oregon State last year after beating down Ohio State, to Oregon after Notre Dame in 2007. 

The pattern does somewhat leave you scratching your head to the Stanford loss in 2007, but it was after a close game against the Washington Huskies that was a nail-biter, this is after a big game against Notre Dame which was also down to the wire, so increase Oregon State’s chances by 5% or so. 

Usually with these upsets, the Trojans also seem to be looking ahead on the schedule to a big match-up, and their match-up next week against top-10 ranked Oregon definitely qualifies. So chalk up another couple percentage points for the Beavers.

Now for the biggest factor in the Beavers favor, which I will call the Mike Riley factor. 

The Beavers seem to get better as their seasons move forward, and this season is no exception.  USC looks like its offense is starting to come along, but is it ready for prime time? 

Oregon State’s defense recently has held USC’s offense in check, and even the big beat-down in 2007 only showed 24 points for USC.  If OSU can hold USC to around there again, OSU has a real chance at a win as I can’t see this offense being nearly as inept as that pass-challenged team. 

No back-handed compliments intended, but Sean Canfield has grown up a bit since that game, and as long as he doesn’t get injured this time, they will have a fighting shot.  If not, there is a slightly hobbled quarterback with a win against USC already in Lyle Moevao. 

The big surprise? Mike Riley and the Beavers are coming off a bye-week.  You know how many Riley has lost in this stint with the Beavers coming off of a bye-week? None.  That’s right, Riley’s Beavers have never lost coming off a bye-week, and its not as if USC rested last weekend as well. 

Which streak ends? A long losing streak in the Coliseum, or the recent history of Riley?  Who prepares a team better to play the Trojans? 

An article written by Taylor Kavanaugh in the Oregonian displayed that even the USC band can be used as motivation.  As the Oregon State team works out, they listen to the USC band play their fight song over and over and over again ad nauseum until it turns from being an annoyance into motivation.  Seems like a powerful tool, and Riley and his staff have not wasted it. 

If the Beavers, with the longest road winning streak in the Pac-10 right now, are to have their shot, this is the coaching staff to do it.