Super Bowl LII 2018: Predicting Eagles vs. Patriots Box Score and Fantasy Stats
Super Bowl LII may not please fans with a high-octane shootout.
Although the rosters—aside from Tom Brady—vary almost entirely from their last championship encounter 13 years ago, Super Bowl XXXIX's 24-21 final score offers a reasonable gauge for Sunday's rematch between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.
While Philadelphia's unheralded defense has allowed 17 combined points in two playoff wins, New England has gradually recuperated from September's defensive disaster. More important to its hope of becoming back-to-back champions, Nick Foles is unlikely to duplicate his flawless NFC Championship Game performance.
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Fantasy players should not expect any magnificent stat lines like last year's NFL finale, when Brady amassed 464 passing yards and James White registered three touchdowns. Both players, however, can once again carry the Patriots across the finish line.
Projected Box Score
1st Quarter: Eagles 7, Patriots 3
2nd Quarter: Patriots 7, Eagles 0
3rd Quarter: Eagles 7 Patriots 3
4th Quarter: Patriots 10, Eagles 6
Final Score: Patriots 23, Eagles 20
Fantasy Predictions
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady: 27-of-40, 295 yards, 2 TD
Nick Foles: 21-of-33, 250 yards, 1 TD, 1 NT
The Eagles contained the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings to 156 combined rushing yards after shielding opponents to an NFL-low 79.2 rushing yards per game this season. As witnessed by Brady throwing 53 times in a lopsided divisional-round victory, the Patriots will sacrifice balance for an effective game plan.
Brady has attempted 201 passes in his last four Super Bowl appearances—inflated by a record-setting 62 last year—so 40 tosses is a tame estimation. That number will shoot up if the Patriots must overcome another significant deficit.
That shouldn't be necessary. While Foles will move the ball well enough against New England's No. 30-ranked passing defense, the Eagles should expect some regression to the mean on downfield throws. Pro-Football-Reference documented his uncharacteristic dominance on long throws to capture the NFC crown:
Calling New England's defense a bend-but-don't-break unit is cliche at this point, but it avoids the major damage that befell Minnesota and contains Foles to a solid, but unspectacular outing.
Running Backs
Jay Ajayi: 16 carries for 75 yards, 3 catches for 20 yards
Dion Lewis: 12 carries for 55 yards, 3 catches for 25 yards
LeGarrette Blount: 7 carries, 22 yards, 1 TD
James White: 4 carries, 12 yards, 4 catches, 45 yards, 1 TD
Philadelphia's tremendous rushing defense stops Dion Lewis from properly punctuating a remarkable campaign. Let's just hope Patriots head coach Bill Belichick does not overreact to the running back coughing up his first career lost fumble in the AFC Championship Game.
While White won't match last Super Bowl's coming-out party, he reemerged as a focal contributor in January. After scoring three touchdowns in the last two contests, the 25-year-old has scored seven times in as many career postseason games.
Per James Davis of USA Today, White said he does not mind sharing responsibilities in a crowded Patriots backfield.
"I like it that way," White said. "Keeps the defense off balance. They gotta pay attention to who's in the game, different style of runners. Keeps a fresh guy in there."
Rex Burkhead has received just one postseason touch, so look for White to again shine on the grand stage. His former teammate, LeGarrette Blount, is a prime candidate to vulture a touchdown from Jay Ajayi for the third straight game.
Ajayi has found pay dirt twice in nine games since getting traded from the Miami Dolphins, but the 24-year-old logged his most touches (21) since joining the team against Minnesota. Now, he faces a former AFC East foe in New England, who relinquished 4.7 yards per carry this season.
While Ajayi should lead both sides in rushing, fantasy investors should not bank on him visiting the end zone.
Wide Receivers
Danny Amendola: 7 catches, 70 yards
Brandin Cooks: 5 catches, 60 yards
Alshon Jeffery: 4 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD
Nelson Agholor: 3 catches, 45 yards
Danny Amendola's playoff legend grew with two fourth-quarter touchdowns—along with a three-yard run and 20-yard pass—in New England's comeback win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Including Super Bowl LI, he has secured 26 catches for 274 yards and three touchdowns in his last three postseason games.
It's reasonable to expect a dip from someone who averaged 43.9 yards per regular-season game, but Brady clearly trusts the 5'11" wideout in big moments. Amendola received the most targets in both of New England's playoff triumphs.
He may even be a safer point-per-reception option than Brandin Cooks, who has collected three or fewer catches in seven of his 18 games with the Patriots.
According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots ranked No. 26 in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against No. 1 wide receivers. The 6'3" Alshon Jeffery wields a height advantage over former college roommate Stephon Gilmore, so he should at least receive some red-zone looks.
Nelson Agholor has caught nine of 10 targets in the last three games, but he could burn former teammate Eric Rowe deep from the slot. Consider him a high-risk, high-reward play, and that's assuming he suits up. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the third-year wideout received intravenous fluids Saturday morning to treat flu-like symptoms.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz: 7 catches, 90 yards
Rob Gronkowski: 6 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD
Cleared from the NFL's concussion protocol, Rob Gronkowski should make a major mark on Sunday's game. As noted by ESPN Stats & Info, Philadelphia's passing defense has failed to effectively stifle tight ends:
A busy day for Brady means ample targets for his star teammate, who caught six of nine targets for 81 yards and his 10th career postseason touchdown in the divisional round. The Eagles will also need a huge outing from their positional counterpart to win.
Zach Ertz has caught 28 of 38 targets for 286 yards in five games with Foles. Although not as prolific as his sizzling start to 2017 with Carson Wentz, the 27-year-old secured all eight targets for 93 yards against Minnesota. He will now encounter a weaker unit that just coughed up a touchdown to Marcedes Lewis.
No tight end has ever taken home Super Bowl MVP honors, but Gronkowski and Ertz are both capable of making history.
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