NFL Draft 2018: Breaking Down Experts' Latest Mock Drafts
Mock draft season is in full swing, and for this latest look at the NFL draft, we'll be examining some of the mocks offered by draft writers around the ol' interwebs, studying the trends and more interesting picks or situations.
We'll check out mock drafts from B/R's Matt Miller, ESPN Insider's Mel Kiper Jr. (subscription required), CBS Sports' R.J. White, USA Today's Luke Easterling and Pro Football Focus' Steve Palazzolo.
To the trends!
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Cleveland is going to take a QB with the No. 1 pick, but which one?
Miller and White have the Browns selecting Sam Darnold. Kiper went with Josh Allen. Easterling has Josh Rosen. And in perhaps the surprise pick of the bunch, Palazzolo went with Baker Mayfield.
This speaks to a few things. For one, nobody knows quite what the Browns will do. But also, it's clear that a unquestioned top player hasn't emerged in the quarterback rankings and might not during the evaluation process.
As Kiper wrote:
"Cleveland has to take a quarterback. Has to. And a winless season means the Browns can pick whichever one they want. My evaluations on this quarterback class are really close. I've gone back and forth a few times on Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold and Allen, but I just moved Allen up to my No. 1 quarterback. His numbers aren't impressive, I know. But the NFL is all about projection, and he has a high ceiling.
"Coaches want to work with the 6-foot-5 Allen because he has all of the tools. I said last month that he is one of my favorite prospects in this class. The other top quarterbacks have warts, and there is no slam-dunk No. 1 prospect, which makes it a fun class. Scouts are looking forward to seeing Allen at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, next week, where he will work out with much better talent."
Every quarterback listed above has clear pluses or minuses.
Allen has all the physical gifts you would want in a quarterback, but his play on the field has been inconsistent. Darnold has fantastic tools as well and the intangibles you want in a quarterback, though he also has had turnover issues.
As Kiper noted, Rosen is the best pure passer, but some teams may be put off by his outspoken personality and leadership question marks. And Mayfield had superb college production and is an accurate thrower, but his size and questions about his maturity may dissuade teams.
It's possible the Browns could also trade out of this pick, or even use it to select a different player like running back Saquon Barkley, if they feel comfortable their top target will drop to No. 4. But the Browns got a bit cute accumulating assets at the expense of selecting a quarterback in the past, and it cost them a chance at players like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson.
Expect the Browns to nab a quarterback this year immediately and begin their rebuild around that player.
The non-quarterback draft starts with Indianapolis
All five mock drafts have the New York Giants taking a quarterback with the No. 2 pick—three votes for Rosen and two for Darnold—leaving the Colts to kick off the non-quarterback portion of the proceedings.
Miller and Kiper have the Colts selecting standout defensive end Bradley Chubb. White and Easterling went with Barkley. And Palazzolo remained the wild card of the bunch, picking Michigan defensive lineman Maurice Hurst—a player who on average was the 21st pick in the other four mocks (though Palazzolo did note that his picks were based on what he would do as a general manager, not on his projections for other teams).
If you're the Colts, you can afford to take the top player on your board. But solidifying the lines should be a priority, making Chubb a logical choice.
It also sets up the Browns with an interesting choice at No. 4—further address the defense or add a potential playmaker like Barkley?
If Barkley is off the board, of course, that choice is probably made for them. But while Miller and Kiper have the Browns nabbing Barkley, the other three have them taking Alabama defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, who would instantly upgrade the team's secondary at either safety or cornerback.
The Browns have the opportunity to come away with two stars in this draft. Nail their picks, and in a year or two the team could be a turnaround story like the Jacksonville Jaguars this year.
One last thing to consider: Assuming the Browns and Giants simply take a quarterback with the first two picks, the Colts and Browns could then raffle off either the No. 3 or 4 pick for quarterback-needy teams trying to get ahead of the Broncos at No. 5.
That might not play particularly well in Cleveland, as Browns fans likely want to see the team start adding star power rather than continuing their asset-collecting ways instituted by the previous front office. But for a Colts team with holes all over the roster, it's an interesting option.
Quarterbacks will shape the first round
Here's how each mock-drafter sees the quarterbacks falling in the first round:
- Miller: Darnold to Browns, Rosen to Giants, Allen to New York Jets, Mayfield to Washington.
- Kiper: Allen to Browns, Rosen to Giants, Darnold to Broncos, Mayfield to Washington.
- White: Darnold to Browns, Rosen to Giants, Mayfield to Broncos, Allen to Washington, Lamar Jackson to Arizona Cardinals, Mason Rudolph to Buffalo Bills.
- Easterling: Rosen to Browns, Darnold to Giants, Allen to Broncos, Mayfield to Jets, Rudolph to Bills, Jackson to Jaguars
- Palazzolo: Mayfield to Browns, Darnold to Giants, Rosen to Broncos, Jackson to Jets, Rudolph to Cardinals
At least four quarterbacks—Allen, Darnold, Mayfield and Rosen—seem like virtual locks as first-rounders. Whether Jackson and Rudolph land in the first round will be one of the most intriguing storylines heading into the draft.
Fitzpatrick, Rosen, Darnold and Barkley are almost universally considered top-five talents
Only Kiper has Fitzpatrick falling out of the top five, and he has the Jets promptly snatching him up with the No. 6 pick. Only Palazzolo dropped Barkley out of the top five, meanwhile, sliding him down to No. 10 (which almost assuredly won't transpire on draft day, but again, Palazzolo made it clear he only approached his mock as though he was the general manager of each team).
Chubb was top-five for Miller and Kiper, though White and Easterling had him dropping to No. 7 for Tampa Bay and Palazzolo selected him at No. 9 for San Francisco. Allen and Mayfield also snuck into the top five in two mocks.
The only players to go in the top five in every mock draft analyzed, meanwhile, were Rosen and Darnold.
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