Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Jacksonville Jaguars hope to pull off a second straight road upset this postseason and get to their first-ever Super Bowl when they visit the New England Patriots in Sunday's AFC Championship Game as big road underdogs at online betting sites.

The Super Bowl champion Patriots are playing in their seventh consecutive conference title game and hosting their third in four years, going 3-3 in their previous six appearances dating back to the 2011 season.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.9-16.2 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds info, picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Jacksonville may not have the postseason experience or quarterback play of New England, but this team has just about everything else needed to get to the Super Bowl.

The Jaguars have arguably more defensive talent than any of the four teams left in the playoff field, including the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC.

They also have a strong running back in rookie Leonard Fournette, who rolled over the Pittsburgh Steelers with 290 rushing yards on 53 carries and five touchdowns in two wins this season, including last week's 45-42 victory in the divisional round.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots have won each of the past seven meetings with Jacksonville straight up, going 5-2 against the spread in those games.

They are also a remarkable 10-1 ATS on the NFL point spreads in their last 11 games overall and riding a seven-game home winning streak in the postseason.

If those betting trends were not enough, they will have future Hall of Famer Tom Brady under center in one of the biggest positional mismatches in conference championship game history opposite Blake Bortles of the Jaguars.

It is almost unthinkable to imagine Bortles possibly getting the best of Brady at Gillette Stadium with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Smart pick

Jacksonville matched up extremely well with Pittsburgh, which is why the team won both meetings fairly easily. That will not be the case with a New England squad led by two of the all-time greats in Brady and head coach Bill Belichick.

The Patriots are easily the best team remaining of the four playing for two spots in the Super Bowl. The Jaguars have been a fun story, but they will be overmatched in this spot, so look for Brady and the Patriots to flex their muscles en route to another double-digit playoff win.

NFL betting trends

The Jaguars are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Patriots.

The total has gone under in three of the Jaguars' last four games against the Patriots.

The Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.