Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds, Wild Card NFL Betting Pick

The Buffalo Bills (9-7) will attempt to win in the state of Florida for the second time in as many weeks when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6) as big road underdogs at the sportsbooks for Sunday's AFC Wild Card matchup.

The Bills made the playoffs for the first time since 1999 by beating the Miami Dolphins 22-16 last Sunday and got some help from the Baltimore Ravens, who lost 31-27 to the Cincinnati Bengals.

NFL point spread: The Jaguars opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.4-12.4 Jaguars (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo is coming off a must-win situation at Miami and should be in better postseason form than a Jacksonville team that lost two in a row to close out the regular season. The Bills won three of their last four games down the stretch and hung tough for a half with the New England Patriots on the road in their lone loss during that time.

In fact, Buffalo's last two losses both came against the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. That said, the Jaguars are not the Patriots, obviously, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Buffalo's defense should be able to keep this game close and help cover.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Jacksonville finally lived up to its potential this season under first-year head coach Doug Marrone, who has one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. The key for the Jaguars is staying disciplined and not committing bad penalties at the wrong times.

Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles will also be counted on more to not lose the game rather than to win it on his own, especially with the emergence of rookie running back Leonard Fournette. Marrone will keep the game plan simple to limit Bortles' mistakes.

Smart pick

The visitor is 5-1 against the spread in the past six meetings between these teams, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, giving the Bills a solid shot to end their eight-game road losing streak during the month of January.

While Buffalo's postseason failures are well-documented, the team's opponent is in nearly the same boat. The Bills may not pull off the upset, but they will do enough to cover the large number.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in the Bills' last five games against the Jaguars.

The visiting team is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in this matchup.

The total has gone over in four of the Bills' last five games after a win.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.