New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

As they do with each of their divisional rivals, the New England Patriots own a big lead recently on the New York Jets, winning 11 of the last 13 meetings straight up. However, the Patriots are only 1-7-1 against the spread over the last nine meetings, in part because they've been favored by so much. Playoff-bound New England is again big chalk for Sunday afternoon's regular-season finale with New York in Foxboro.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 16.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 38.7-5.2 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Jets can cover the spread

The Jets are a tough sell at the moment, with three straight losses, including a 14-7 decision against the Chargers last week. New York only trailed Los Angeles by the one score and reached the Chargers' red zone with three minutes to go, but turned it over on downs.

On the day the Jets outrushed Los Angeles 197-89. But they also lost the turnover battle 3-0, including a lost fumble from the Chargers' 20-yard line.

Two weeks ago New York trailed the playoff-bound Saints in New Orleans 10-0 early, pulled to within 24-19 late, lost 31-19, but covered easily as a 16-point dog.

On the season six of the Jets' 10 losses have come by one score or less.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots are 2-0 both SU and ATS since that upset loss to Miami. First they outlasted the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 27-24, and last week they pulled away for a 37-16 victory over Buffalo. So New England is now one win away from securing the top seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs.

The Patriots let the Bills stick around for a 16-16 tie well into the third quarter last week. But they then scored touchdowns on three straight possessions on their way toward covering as 11-point favorites. On the day New England outgained Buffalo 411-326 and outrushed the Bills 193-84.

The Patriots have outgained seven of their last nine opponents, going 8-1 ATS in the process.

The only other way New England comes out with the No. 1 seed in the AFC is if Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland. And that's probably not going to happen; the Patriots might as well take care of business themselves.

Smart pick

Double-digit favorites are 27-4 SU in the NFL this season but only 14-17 ATS. Also, while New England beat New York earlier this season 24-17, the Jets outplayed the Patriots that day and covered as nine-point dogs. New England has the motivation to win this game, and New York is down to its backup quarterback, but the smart money here probably takes the points.

NFL betting trends

The Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against the Patriots.

The total has gone over in 13 of the Patriots' last 17 games at home in December.

The Patriots are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 17.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.