New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The New Orleans Saints own the upper hand in the rivalry with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as of late, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings, including a convincing decision earlier this season. Playoff-bound New Orleans shoots for a similar result Sunday afternoon in Tampa, Florida.

NFL point spread: The Saints opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.8-24.6 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints won their second game in a row last week, beating Atlanta 23-13, covering as six-point favorites. New Orleans broke the ice with an early field goal, then got a big Drew Brees-to-Ted Ginn 54-yard touchdown connection just before the half to lead 13-0. The Saints pushed that to 23-6 in the fourth quarter, before allowing the Falcons to find the end zone for the only time of the day with just under three minutes to go.

New Orleans held a 34-26 edge in time of possession on Atlanta and won the turnover battle 2-1. The Saints also turned one Matt Ryan interception into a touchdown, forced a fumble from their own 1-yard line and made a defensive stuff on a fourth-and-goal again from their own 1-yard line.

New Orleans has now outgained and outrushed 10 of its last 13 opponents. It's also 9-4 ATS over that span. At 11-4 the Saints have already clinched a playoff spot. With a win Sunday as well as some help they can earn the No. 3 seed in the NFC.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Bucs suffered another close loss last week, this one 22-19 at Carolina. Tampa trailed the Panthers 12-6 late in the second quarter, rallied to lead 19-15 late in the game, but gave up a Cam Newton touchdown and then fumbled the ball away.

On the day, the Buccaneers outgained the Panthers 392-255 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. They also gave up a 103-yard kickoff return for a score. Nonetheless, Tampa covered as a 10-point dog.

Two weeks ago the Bucs missed a field goal at the buzzer that would have forced overtime in a 24-21 loss to Atlanta. Just before that, they lost to Detroit by that same score on a Lions field goal with time running out. And just before that Tampa lost at Green Bay 26-20 in overtime. So, while the Bucs are out of playoff contention, they've been playing some close games.

Smart pick

New Orleans owns advantages at quarterback, with the running game and on defense. It's also 3-1 both SU and ATS this season on grass, averaging 25 points per game. The smart money here sides with the Saints.

NFL betting trends

The Saints are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Buccaneers.

The total has gone under in five of the Saints' last six games against the Buccaneers.

The Saints are 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.