Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Carolina Panthers (11-4) will try to keep the Atlanta Falcons (9-6) out of the playoffs and increase their chances of winning the NFC South on Sunday as small road underdogs for this key divisional matchup.

The Panthers can take home the NFC South with a victory and a loss for the New Orleans Saints, while the Falcons would be out if they lose and the Seattle Seahawks win.

NFL point spread: The Falcons opened as three-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.2-20.8 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina still has a lot to play for here and can kill two birds with one stone by earning a victory.

The Panthers will be playing at the same time as the Saints, so they will not know how their competition for the division title is doing during their respective games. In order words, they will be going all out to win and can also knock out the defending NFC champions in the process.

Carolina was a three-point home underdog the last time these teams squared off in Week 9 and still emerged with a 20-17 victory.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta has won eight of its last 10 games versus divisional opponents, including last week's 23-13 loss at New Orleans.

The Falcons split two games with the Saints over the past three weeks and beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road to stay alive in the playoff race.

While Atlanta has not played as well this season at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a 4-3 mark, getting the chance to play at home with a postseason berth on the line is an advantage.

Smart pick

The Panthers are 7-2 against the spread their last nine road games, and they have won 20 of their previous 25 matchups during December straight up. Plus, this time around they have tight end Greg Olsen back on the field after he missed the first meeting due to a fractured foot.

Carolina barely got by Tampa Bay last week, and that result may scare bettors away from taking the better team in this spot. That said, fade the Falcons.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in seven of the Panthers' last nine games against the Falcons.

The Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road.

The total has gone over in 10 of the Panthers' last 14 games as an underdog.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.