Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Even though they're contending for the top seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 1-5 against the spread their last six times out, thanks in part to inflated lines.

Pittsburgh finds itself in the giving mood again this week, offering the Texans double digits for their Christmas afternoon affair in Houston.

NFL point spread: The Steelers opened as 10.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.5-18.0 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers, second at +600 on the odds to win Super Bowl 52, are looking to rebound this week after taking that terrible 27-24 loss to New England last week.

Pittsburgh spotted the Patriots an early touchdown, battled back to lead 17-10 at the half and 24-16 well into the fourth quarter.

In a brutal turn of events, though, the Steelers fell down by a field goal with a minute to go, got robbed of a touchdown and then threw an interception when they only needed a field goal to force overtime.

On the afternoon, Pittsburgh outgained New England 413-360, outrushed the Patriots 143-77 and won time of possession by a 35-25 split. Basically, they just botched what would have been their ninth straight victory and a huge advantage in the AFC playoff race.

So the Steelers have now outgained 10 of their last 11 opponents and outrushed seven of their last nine foes.

At 11-3 overall, Pittsburgh is tied with the Patriots for the top spot in the AFC standings but loses the tiebreaker. The Steelers are also only a game ahead of 10-4 Jacksonville in the battle for the No. 2 spot, and they lose the tiebreaker to the Jaguars too.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The injury-riddled Texans are a tough case to make coming off their fourth straight loss, a 45-7 drubbing at Jacksonville last week.

Houston just couldn't get anything going on either side of the ball against an inspired Jags outfit and should probably just try to forget that game even happened.

Two weeks ago, the Texans played San Francisco to a 16-16 tie before giving up the last 10 points of the game. Just before that, they led Tennessee 10-0 early and only trailed by four with five minutes to go in a 24-13 loss. In Week 12, Houston gave the Ravens a good game in a 23-16 loss on a Monday night in Baltimore. So the Texans were staying in games until last week.

Houston is down to its third-stringer at quarterback, T.J. Yates, who is 4-4 in his career as an NFL starter.

Smart pick

Pittsburgh still needs this one if it wants to host a playoff game, and it should bounce back. The Texans, on the other hand, are just playing out the string on a lost season. Smart money here rides the Steelers.

NFL betting trends

The Steelers are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Texans.

The total has gone under in six of the Texans' last seven games in Week 16.

The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.