Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Dallas Cowboys (8-6) will welcome back running back Ezekiel Elliott from a four-game suspension on Sunday when they host the Seattle Seahawks (8-6) as small home favorites. The Cowboys and Seahawks still have an outside shot of making the playoffs in the NFC, but both of them need to win out and get some help along the way starting with this pivotal matchup.

NFL point spread: The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.6-15.7 Cowboys (NFL picks on every game).

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Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

As long as Seattle has quarterback Russell Wilson under center, the team should have a chance to cover the spread. Wilson is on the board at +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200) on the odds to win NFL MVP.

While that was not the case last week in a 42-7 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the Seahawks hung tough on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars the previous week despite falling 30-24. They handed the Philadelphia Eagles their second loss of the season 24-10 at home before that. Dallas is also just 3-4 at home this year both straight up and against the spread.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

The Cowboys are riding a three-game winning streak without Elliott, and now they will get the chance to incorporate him into an offense averaging more than 29 points per game during that stretch. Whether or not it is too late for them to make a return to the postseason remains to be seen, but Elliott should still be motivated to perform well here, especially in front of the home crowd.

Dallas has gone 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings with Seattle as well, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Smart pick

The Seahawks hold a tiebreaker advantage for the playoffs over the Cowboys, although the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions are still ahead of each of them in the pecking order for the sixth and final spot.

Seattle's defense is in worse shape physically heading into this key game even though linebackers K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner are reportedly feeling better. The secondary particularly is not the same, so look for Dallas to at least exploit that major weakness en route to a huge home victory and cover.

NFL betting trends

The Seahawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against the Cowboys.

The total has gone under in six of the Seahawks' last eight games against the Cowboys.

The Cowboys are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after consecutive wins.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.