Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) will attempt to clinch the AFC West title on Sunday when they host the Miami Dolphins (6-8) as double-digit home favorites at the sportsbooks. The Chiefs have put themselves in position to win the division title with back-to-back home wins over the Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers.

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.8-13.6 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game).

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

First of all, Miami has won three of the past four meetings with Kansas City both straight up and against the spread. That is a good enough reason, especially in a potential letdown spot for the Chiefs and such a big number involved.

The Dolphins have shown glimpses of playing well against good teams, particularly vs. the Atlanta Falcons on the road in Week 6 and the New England Patriots at home in Week 14. They were comparable underdogs both times.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Is Kansas City, now up at +1800 (bet $100 to win $1,800) on the Super Bowl 52 odds, really back on track? This is a game that should show whether or not this team is a threat again in the AFC after losing four straight and six of seven following an impressive 5-0 start.

The Chiefs still have a lot of potential and remain one of the most balanced teams in the league with regards to offense, defense and special teams. Quarterback Alex Smith got snubbed from the Pro Bowl earlier this week as well, so look for him and his teammates to be motivated to prove he deserved a spot.

Smart pick

This matchup boils down to whether you can trust Miami quarterback Jay Cutler playing in a hostile environment at Arrowhead Stadium. When Cutler plays bad, he plays really bad, and Kansas City's defense is poised to make life difficult for him on Christmas Eve.

The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after a win, and they seem to be rolling right now. If Derek Carr and Philip Rivers could not lead the Raiders and Chargers to wins and/or covers at Arrowhead, respectively, then neither can Cutler. Bet on Kansas City to win its third straight by double digits and continue its ATS run.

NFL betting trends

The Dolphins are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after a win.

The total has gone under in five of the Chiefs' last six games.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.