Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Carolina Panthers (10-4) will try to keep their NFC South title hopes alive when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) as double-digit chalk Sunday. The Panthers can take the division by winning out and seeing the Atlanta Falcons upset the New Orleans Saints on the road in Week 16.

NFL point spread: The Panthers opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.4-14.2 Panthers. NFL picks on every game.

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Why the Buccaneers Can Cover the Spread

The Buccaneers proved Monday night they have the talent to compete with the best teams in the NFC South even if they are not winning those games. They fell to the Falcons 24-21 as seven-point home underdogs but managed to cover the spread with a chance to tie the game at the end on a 54-yard field-goal attempt.

Unfortunately for them, the field goal was not converted, wasting a great effort by quarterback Jameis Winston, who threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns.

Why the Panthers Can Cover the Spread

Carolina has gotten the best of Tampa Bay lately, going 7-2 straight up in the past nine meetings and covering the spread in four of the last five.

The Panthers won the first game between the teams this season 17-3 in Week 8 as 1.5-point road dogs. That was behind a strong defensive effort that saw Winston complete 21 of 38 passes for 210 yards and throw two interceptions while getting sacked three times for 16 yards.

It is worth noting Carolina was without Greg Olsen in that game because the tight end had a fractured foot, and he had nine catches for 116 yards in Week 15.

Smart Pick

Taking big favorites in divisional games can be dangerous, but not at this point of the season. The Panthers are the more motivated team. They are chasing the NFC South title while the Buccaneers are playing on a short week off a disappointing loss that effectively ended their campaign.

Tampa Bay just put five starters on season-ending IR. That alone shows the Bucs are in bad shape physically. Carolina has too many edges to ignore, so back the host.

NFL Betting Trends

The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their past five games against the Panthers.

The total has gone under in the Buccaneers' past three games against the Panthers.

The Buccaneers are 0-6 SU and ATS in their past six games in Week 16.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.