Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Atlanta Falcons own an edge in the rivalry with the New Orleans Saints as of late, winning five of the last seven meetings outright, including the last three, going 5-3 against the spread over the last eight. In a big game in the NFC South, Atlanta battles New Orleans on Sunday afternoon at the Superdome.

NFL point spread: The Saints opened as five-point favorites; the total was 52 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.8-21.4 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons are working on a two-game winning streak, following their 24-21 victory at Tampa Bay on Monday night. Atlanta took a 7-0 lead eight minutes into the game, pushed that to 24-14 in the fourth quarter, gave up a Buccaneers score with four minutes to go, then survived a long Tampa Bay field-goal attempt at the buzzer.

On the night the Falcons outgained the Bucs 410-373, won the ground battle 201-84 and held a 33-27 advantage in time of possession. So Atlanta has outgained six of its last eight opponents.

At 9-5 on the season the Falcons trail 10-4 Carolina and New Orleans by one game in the NFC South, but can win the division with victories this week and next week against the Panthers.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints bounced back from a loss to Atlanta two weeks ago to beat the Jets last week 31-19. New Orleans grabbed an early 10-0 lead, bumped that to 24-13 in the fourth quarter, let New York get within one score with just under two minutes to go, but iced the victory on Mark Ingram's 50-yard touchdown bolt while running out the clock.

On the day the Saints outgained the Jets 412-294. However, three New Orleans turnovers basically cost them nine points, and they came up five points short of covering as 16-point favorites.

The Saints have now outgained eight of their last 10 opponents, and outrushed six of their last seven foes. And at 10-4 New Orleans is tied for the lead in the NFC South with Carolina, and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Smart pick

The Falcons just beat the Saints two weeks ago 20-17, but these teams are quite equal, and a reversal of that outcome would come as no surprise. Also, Atlanta is playing on a short week. Smart money here sides with New Orleans.

NFL betting trends

The favored team is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games in this matchup.

The Saints are 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

The total has gone over in five of the Saints' last six games against their division at home.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.