Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Not too long ago, the Green Bay Packers pinned a 10-1-1 run on their good friends, the Minnesota Vikings. But the Vikings are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread over the last four meetings, including a victory and cover back in October.

Minnesota shoots for the season sweep against Green Bay on Saturday night at Lambeau Field.

NFL point spread: The Vikings opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 40.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.3-16.9 Vikings (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings just bounced back from that loss at Carolina two weeks ago to pound the Cincinnati Bengals 34-7 Sunday.

Minnesota drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown, led 17-0 after one quarter and 34-0 in the fourth, on its way toward the easy cover of a 12-point spread.

On the afternoon, the Vikings outgained the Bengals 346-161, outrushed Cincy 124-46 and won time of possession by a 36-24 margin. The defense also chipped in with a pick-six.

Minnesota has now outgained each of its last 12 opponents and outrushed eight of its last 10. It's also now 9-3 both SU and ATS with Case Keenum at quarterback.

With the win, the Vikings clinched the NFC North title. At 11-3 overall, Minnesota owns the No. 2 spot in the NFC playoff standings, a game behind 12-2 Philadelphia but only a game ahead of the Rams, Saints and Panthers.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers had won two straight games with Brett Hundley at quarterback and got Aaron Rodgers back last week, but they lost a tough one at Carolina 31-24.

Green Bay led at the half 14-10, fell down 31-17 but pulled to within one score late and got the ball back on an onside kick. But a fumble just inside the Panthers' 30-yard line killed the comeback drive.

On the day, the Packers got outgained by Carolina but only by a margin of 387-384. Unfortunately, a rusty Rodgers threw three interceptions, one of which resulted directly in a Panthers touchdown.

Green Bay also came up empty on drives that reached the Carolina 37-yard and 21-yard lines.

Thanks to Atlanta's victory Monday night, the 7-7 Packers have been eliminated from playoff contention. But that doesn't mean they wouldn't love to get a little revenge on Minnesota for that loss earlier this season in which Rodgers was injured.

Smart pick

With the Packers out of playoff contention, Rodgers has been shut down for the season. The Packers went 3-5 without him, and the only teams they beat were the Bears, Buccaneers and Browns. Smart money here likes Minnesota.

NFL betting trends

The Vikings are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Packers.

The total has gone over in the Packers' last six games in December.

The Vikings are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games on a Saturday.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.