Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Colts franchise broke the city of Baltimore's heart 33 years ago, and it's been rubbing it in ever since. Indianapolis owns 10 wins in 14 meetings with the new kids on the block, the Ravens, including nine in the last 11. Indianapolis returns to the scene of the crime Saturday night.

NFL point spread: The Ravens opened as 13-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 34.6-7.2 Ravens (NFL picks on every game).

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Why the Colts can cover the spread

What can we say about the Colts to inspire any betting confidence? Well, they've lost five games in a row, but three of those came by six points or fewer, one in a snowstorm in overtime. Last week Indianapolis led Denver 10-0 well into the second quarter, and 13-7 well into the third, before giving up the last 18 points of the game in a 25-13 defeat.

Two weeks ago, the Colts had a chance to win a game in Buffalo with a late field goal but missed (in impossible conditions) and eventually lost in overtime 13-7. Prior to that, Indianapolis led playoff-contending Tennessee by 10 points in the third quarter but lost 20-16. And just before that, the Colts led playoff-bound Pittsburgh 17-3 in the third quarter but lost 20-17.

So Indianapolis is staying in games; it's just coming up about a quarter short.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

The Ravens just recovered from that disheartening loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago to beat Cleveland last week 27-10. Baltimore trailed the Browns 10-7 in the second quarter but took the lead on a short Joe Flacco touchdown run and pulled away from there, eventually covering a seven-point spread.

On the day, the Ravens outgained Cleveland 376-266, won the turnover battle 4-0 and dominated time of possession by a 37-23 split.

Baltimore now leads the NFL in turnover margin at a gaudy plus-17. The Ravens are also 4-1 both straight up and against the spread their last five times out.

At 8-6 on the season Baltimore sits in the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoffs standings, but controls its own destiny; the Ravens can clinch a playoff berth with wins this week and at home against Cincinnati next week.

Smart pick

The outcome of this game isn't in too much doubt; the Ravens are questing for the playoffs, while the Colts might be headed for a house-cleaning. However, double-digit favorites in the NFL this season are only 12-14 ATS (22-4 SU), and Indianapolis has been keeping most games close. The underdog is probably the better bet in this spot.

NFL betting trends

The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Ravens.

The total has gone under in the Colts' last six games against the Ravens.

The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after consecutive ATS wins.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.