NFL Predictions Week 15: Full Projections, Odds, Highlighting Top Fantasy Stars
Any fantasy football managers with the foresight to start Brock Osweiler opened Week 15 on the right foot.
When Trevor Siemian left Thursday night's game with a shoulder injury, the Denver Broncos again turned to Osweiler. Their on-again, off-again quarterback delivered, orchestrating a 25-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts with three touchdowns (two passing and one rushing).
Some results are unpredictable, but that should not deter fantasy gamers and NFL bettors from seeking the most probable outcomes. Sure, Tom Brady could stumble again. Years of data, however, suggest the iconic New England Patriots passer should be just fine.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Las Vegas helps researchers decipher the most likely finishes, so fantasy participants can benefit from applying the spreads and over/under lines to their own game estimations. Using information from OddsShark, updated as of Friday night, let's predict each game's score and project individuals poised for strong showings.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-4.5, 44 O/U)
Fantasy Star: RB Jordan Howard (17 touches, 85 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Lions 28, Bears 20
Jordan Howard faces an uphill climb as the running back for a road underdog. Team shortcomings didn't hurt in November, when he produced 125 yards and a touchdown in a 27-24 loss to the Detroit Lions.
Don't expect rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to lead the Chicago Bears to an upset, but the defense just needs to keep the rematch even enough to lend Howard 15-20 touches. Detroit has relinquished 4.2 yards per carry and an NFC-worst 17 rushing touchdowns this year.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Even, 46 O/U)
Fantasy Stars: QB Philip Rivers (320 yards, 2 TDs) and Keenan Allen (8 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Chargers 27, Chiefs 23
Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen are firing on all cylinders. During the Los Angeles Chargers' four-game winning streak, the quarterback has compiled 1,348 passing yards and eight touchdowns. Allen has cleared 100 yards in each contest, tallying 547 yards and four touchdowns on 39 catches.
NFL Research highlighted the duo's resounding efficacy during that stretch:
They should keep rolling against the Kansas City Chiefs' fifth-worst passing defense. Although Rivers tossed three interceptions during their Week 3 meeting, each AFC West squad has since taken a steep 180. Allen should see plenty of snaps away from cornerback Marcus Peters, so treat both as must-start studs.
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-11, 42 O/U)
Fantasy Star: RB Latavius Murray (20 touches, 85 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Vikings 20, Bengals 10
The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed an NFL-high 132.1 rushing yards per game this season, and the Minnesota Vikings are double-digit favorites at home. After accruing a combined 20 touches in Week 14, Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon should both receive heavier workloads.
Even after generating 16 rushing yards on nine carries against the Carolina Panthers, Murray is Minnesota's top benefactor. The 27-year-old is still averaging 74.9 yards on 17.3 touches over the past seven games.
McKinnon hasn't eclipsed 60 total yards in a game since Week 8, so treat him as a low-floor flex play.
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-16, 47.5 O/U)
Fantasy Star: WR Michael Thomas (7 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: New Orleans Saints 34, New York Jets 7
Despite ranking No. 5 in receptions (85) and No. 6 in receiving yards (992), Michael Thomas rarely draws the national notoriety befitting a top-tier wide receiver. As he told the Times-Picayune's Josh Katzenstein, everyone will eventually take notice:
Any decent fantasy player knows the New Orleans Saints star. After Week 15, some will credit him for punching a ticket to the championship.
According to Football Outsiders, the New York Jets have yielded 85.1 receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 wideouts with the NFL's third-worst Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). They have also surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to the position, so Drew Brees should connect with Thomas for some sizzling plays inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 39 O/U)
Fantasy Star: RB Kenyan Drake (22 touches, 115 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Dolphins 17, Bills 16
Kenyan Drake will rightfully be a popular play in seasonal and daily fantasy formats.
The second-year running back has recorded 334 yards and a touchdown in the Miami Dolphins' past two games without Damien Williams. Even if his teammate returns, Drake has cemented his spot as their top rusher.
Opponents have followed a clear blueprint to attacking the Buffalo Bills, who have forfeited an NFL-low 11 passing touchdowns and NFL-high 18 rushing scores. That gives Miami even more motivation to utilize a ground-heavy attack on what's expected to be another cold Sunday in Orchard Park, New York. Consider Drake a top-10 running back without Williams and a strong No. 2 option if needing to share some touches.
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47 O/U)
Fantasy Star: WR Jordy Nelson (6 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Packers 28, Panthers 27
Jordy Nelson has been unplayable since Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6. Now he's close to a must-start option.
In Brett Hundley's seven starts, Nelson caught 22 passes for 153 yards and no touchdowns. In the four games he and Rodgers both finished for the Green Bay Packers this term, he reeled in 19 receptions for 230 yards and six touchdowns.
Per Zach Kruse of Packers Wire, the returning Rodgers is looking forward to reconnecting with his elite wideout:
Even if Davante Adams loses some targets, the massive quarterback upgrade maintains his value as a top-20 receiver. Nelson joins him against a Panthers defense that has yielded 10 passing touchdowns in the past five games.
Baltimore Ravens (-7, 40.5 O/U) at Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Star: RB Alex Collins (23 touches, 120 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Ravens 20, Browns 6
Despite the Baltimore Ravens' recent passing resurgence, streaming quarterback Joe Flacco remains too risky. Alex Collins, on the other hand, gets an easy green light.
After going eight games without finding the end zone, he has scored five rushing touchdowns in Baltimore's past five bouts. Opportunities are no longer an issue; the 23-year-old running back has stockpiled 79 touches during that stretch.
Although the Cleveland Browns rank No. 6 against the run, with just 3.3 yards surrendered per carry, they surrendered 389 combined yards to Joe Mixon, Melvin Gordon and Jamaal Williams over the past three gameweeks. Collins, who is averaging a superb 5.1 yards per rush, will get a plenty of work in what should be a straightforward Ravens victory.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11.5, 38 O/U)
Fantasy Star: QB Blake Bortles (275 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 20 rushing yards)
Prediction: Jaguars 26, Texans 9
Afraid of letting Blake Bortles determine a playoff matchup? That's reasonable, especially for someone who owns a legitimate top-10 quarterback.
Those who lost Carson Wentz or don't trust Alex Smith, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston or Jared Goff should take a walk on the wild side.
After running for two touchdowns in Week 12's loss to the Arizona Cardinals, Bortles has tossed two passing touchdowns in consecutive games. He also went 44-of-62 for 577 passing yards and no interceptions. His Jacksonville Jaguars are heavy home favorites against the Houston Texans, who have handed opposing quarterbacks the second-most fantasy points per game.
No longer a punchline, Bortles is instead a borderline top-12 passer for a pivotal Week 15.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 40 O/U) at New York Giants
Fantasy Star: TE Zach Ertz (7 catches, 85 yards)
Prediction: Eagles 20, Giants 16
Per ESPN.com, Philadelphia Eagles head coach Doug Pederson said tight end Zach Ertz is "good to go" after clearing concussion protocol Wednesday. Although Wentz will not join him at Metlife Stadium, a favorable matchup keeps him entrenched in elite territory.
Tight ends have gashed the New York Giants for 870 yards and 11 touchdowns this year, both the NFL's highest tallies. While quarterback Nick Foles has little familiarity with his wide receivers, he worked with Ertz in 2013 and 2014.
Ertz's touchdown production will take a hit in a diminished offense, but he will still garner plenty of targets as a security blanket.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington (-4, 42 O/U)
Fantasy Star: WR Larry Fitzgerald (8 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Washington 21, Cardinals 17
Both offenses are limping into this matchup, so let's give the spotlight to Larry Fitzgerald. Fourth in receptions (87) and eighth in targets (123), he's a steady option despite tallying under 45 yards in three of the Arizona Cardinals' past seven games.
Shredded by Allen time out, Washington must once again contain an elite wideout working out of the slot. Fitzgerald is the only Arizona player to use with any confidence.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2, 47 O/U)
Fantasy Star: QB Russell Wilson (245 passing yards, 2 TDs, 40 rushing yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Seahawks 25, Rams 23
Facing Jacksonville is a fantasy death sentence for most quarterbacks. Russell Wilson, however, escaped the nightmare matchup with 271 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, three picks and 50 rushing yards.
The Seattle Seahawks star has surpassed 225 passing yards with two or more touchdowns in each of the past eight games. Before that, he mustered 198 yards and one score through the air against the Los Angeles Rams, whom Seattle hosts Sunday.
While the Rams have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, those adversaries include Scott Tolzien, Brian Hoyer, Tom Savage and Blaine Gabbert. Out of respect for past successes, Carson Palmer and Eli Manning were spared from joining that group.
Wilson will fare much better in Week 15's rematch. He's the gameweek's best play outside of an epic AFC showdown between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-1, 44.5 O/U)
Fantasy Star: TE Delanie Walker (5 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: 49ers 20, Titans 19
Having thrown four touchdowns and nine interceptions in the past five games, Marcus Mariota can't be trusted to exploit a golden matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Gamers can at least get some exposure to the weak defense by playing Delanie Walker.
Guarding the tight end is San Francisco's greatest strength. It has allowed 0.3 fewer fantasy points to the position than Jacksonville this season. Yet few opponents have one leading his team in targets (91), receptions (63) and receiving yards (713) like Walker.
The reliable veteran hasn't dipped below 40 yards in two months. Such a sturdy floor is nearly impossible to find at tight end, so fire him up as a top-five play just below the top tier of superstars.
New England Patriots (-3, 54.5 O/U) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Star: WR Antonio Brown (10 catches, 125 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Patriots 34, Steelers 31
Play every star in this stacked matchup. Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are respectively the gameweek's top two quarterbacks. Le'Veon Bell, Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks are all matchup-proof studs, and New England's backfield duo of Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead should offer solid results in a shootout.
Antonio Brown, meanwhile, is the best player in fantasy football.
The Pittsburgh wideout has 39 catches for 627 yards and six touchdowns over four unbelievably dominant games. He compiled 119 yards against New England last season, and that was with Landry Jones starting under center.
Brown represents the closest thing this sport has to a lock. Especially at home, where he has collected 810 yards and six scores in six games.
Dallas Cowboys (-3, 45 O/U) at Oakland Raiders
Fantasy Star: WR Michael Crabtree (6 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Raiders 24, Cowboys 23
On Friday, per NFL Network' James Palmer, Oakland Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio confirmed that Amari Cooper will not play against the Dallas Cowboys:
While he suited up in Week 14, the wideout left the game early without a single catch. Michael Crabtree filled the void by collecting seven catches for 60 yards on a season-high 13 targets. Although he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 7, the 30-year-old has received double-digit targets in three of his past five games.
He should see plenty of more opportunities against a No. 23 Dallas defense that has surrendered an NFL-worst 17 passing touchdowns to wide receivers. This is the perfect chance to halt his end-zone hiatus.
Atlanta Falcons (-6, 48.5 O/U) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Star: WR Julio Jones (9 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction: Falcons 31, Buccaneers 21
Is Julio Jones going to torch the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for another 253 receiving yards and two touchdowns? Probably not. But 100 and a score are reasonable requests against the league's worst passing defense.
The Atlanta Falcons star has owned Tampa Bay long before Week 12's onslaught. Dating back to 2014, he has garnered 965 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in seven games against the NFC South foe.
Nobody should need those numbers to know an elite wideout will probably torment a dreadful secondary. Apologies for those with the poor fortune of facing Jones Monday.
All fantasy data obtained from Yahoo Sports.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
