New York Jets vs. New Orleans Saints Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The New Orleans Saints (9-4) will try to hold on to at least a share of the NFC South lead when they host the New York Jets (5-8) on Sunday as massive home favorites. In fact, the Saints could challenge the New England Patriots (-17 in Week 12) as the biggest chalk of the season with starting quarterback Josh McCown (hand) out the rest of the regular season for the Jets.

NFL point spread: The Saints opened as 15.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.4-11.0 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Jets can cover the spread

Well, the Miami Dolphins nearly covered the spread in their first meeting with the Patriots as 17-point road dogs in a 35-17 loss and then upset them last week as double-digit home dogs in a 27-20 victory on Monday night. In other words, New York certainly has a chance considering the huge number involved.

Even though the Jets have lost nine of their last 11 games when closing as double-digit dogs, they did win twice and went 6-4-1 against the spread, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans has enjoyed some extra time off since playing in the Week 14 Thursday night matchup, suffering a 20-17 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons in a key divisional game. There will be far less pressure to perform here against a New York team that will not be nearly the same offensively without McCown under center.

The Jets will not be able to keep up on the scoreboard and may not score many points at all, which is something bettors should definitely consider when the point spread is this high.

Smart pick

New York has gone a miserable 3-13-1 ATS in its previous 17 games after losing as a favorite, and that trend will continue here following a 23-0 road loss to the Denver Broncos as a one-point chalk.

The Jets do not have a solid signal caller to replace McCown, with Bryce Petty slightly better than Christian Hackenberg. Do not be surprised to see Petty and Hackenberg each take the field at the Superdome while Chase Daniel will likely see his first action this season replacing Drew Brees in a rout (and cover) for the Saints.

NFL betting trends

The Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the Saints.

The total has gone over in the Saints' last five games after a loss.

The Saints are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in the early afternoon.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.