Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

With back-to-back overtime wins/covers the Green Bay Packers are now 3-5 straight up and 4-4 against the spread without Aaron Rodgers this season. No. 12 is expected to return to action, per ESPN's Rob Demovsky, when the Packers meet up with the Carolina Panthers for a key NFC bout Sunday afternoon in Charlotte.

NFL point spread: The Panthers opened as two-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.4-13.0 Panthers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers picked up a second straight victory last week, coming from behind to beat Cleveland 27-21 in overtime. Green Bay, with help from a fake punt, drove the opening possession of the game 74 yards to a touchdown, but was later down 21-7. The Packers then scored twice in the fourth quarter, forcing overtime on a Brett Hundley touchdown connection with Davante Adams with 17 seconds left. An interception and another Hundley-Adams touchdown hookup in overtime gave the Packers the win.

On the day, Green Bay was outgained 345-341 but made 24 first downs compared to 17 for the Browns, held a 36-29 time of possession advantage and, most importantly, won the turnover battle 2-0. The Packers are now 3-0 ATS the last three weeks.

At 7-6 on the season, Green Bay trails 8-5 Atlanta by a game (and a tiebreaker) in the battle for the second NFC wild-card spot.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers just bounced back from that loss at New Orleans two weeks ago to beat Minnesota last week 31-24. Carolina took a 7-0 lead five minutes into the game with an interception and a 60-yard Jonathan Stewart touchdown bolt and pushed that to 24-13 through three quarters. The Panthers then allowed the Vikings to tie at 24-24 but a 62-yard run by Cam Newton set up the game-winning score with just under two minutes to go.

Carolina outrushed Minnesota 216-100 and won the turnover battle 3-1. So the Panthers have now outrushed six of their last seven opponents, going 5-2 ATS in the process.

At 9-4, Carolina is tied with New Orleans for first place in the NFC South, although the Panthers will not own the tiebreaker with the Saints. Carolina also owns the first NFC wild-card spot at the moment.

Smart pick

If a healthy Rodgers plays, the Packers might win this game outright. If he doesn't, they might get pummeled. Green Bay may have won its last two games with Hundley, but it was "good" enough to trail two lousy teams, Tampa Bay and Cleveland, in the fourth quarter. The smart money here plays the Panthers.

NFL betting trends

The Packers are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Panthers.

The total has gone over in the Packers' last six games against the Panthers.

The Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in December.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.