New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Tom Brady owns the upper hand in the rivalry with fellow quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, winning seven of nine career matchups outright, including the AFC Championship Game last year, and going 6-2-1 against the spread. The two meet again with much at stake when Brady's New England Patriots battle Big Ben's Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. 

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as one-point favorites; the total was 54 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.4-22.6 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots won eight games in a row going into Week 14 but lost at Miami on Monday night 27-20. New England trailed 13-10 at the half and was down 27-10 late in the third quarter. It pulled to within one score with a minute to go but couldn't recover an onside kick.

The Pats got outgained and outrushed and lost both the turnover and time of possession battles. But that's the first time that's happened this season. New England played that game without suspended tight end Rob Gronkowski, who will be back this week.

Even with last week's loss, the Patriots are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS on the road this season, and they're still the favorites on the odds to win Super Bowl 52.

At 10-3 overall, New England owns the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff standings. The Patriots are just one game behind top-seeded Pittsburgh, but they're also only one game ahead of 9-4 Jacksonville in the battle for a first-round bye.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers own an eight-game winning streak of their own, following their 39-38 come-from-behind victory over Baltimore on Sunday night. Pittsburgh jumped out to a 14-0 lead before trailing 38-29. The Steelers scored the last 10 points of the game, the final three on a Chris Boswell field goal with 40 seconds left.

Pittsburgh put up 545 yards of offense, as Roethlisberger hit on 44 of 66 throws for 506 yards and two touchdowns. So the team has outgained nine of its last 10 opponents and outrushed six of its last eight foes.

At 11-2 the Steelers lead New England by one game in the battle for the best record in the AFC.

Smart pick

Pittsburgh is living dangerously; six of its last eight victories have come by six points or fewer, with four off late Boswell field goals. New England, meanwhile, doesn't lose two in a row very often. The smart money here picks the Patriots.

NFL betting trends

The Patriots are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against the Steelers.

The Steelers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games in December.

The total has gone over in the Steelers' last four games.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.