NFL Week 15 Picks: Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions Before Thursday Night

The two best teams in the AFC will square off Sunday afternoon, and this game will go a long way toward determining homefield advantage in that conference's playoffs.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) have the best record in the AFC, and they will host the New England Patriots (10-3) Sunday afternoon.

If the Steelers win, they will have a one-game lead plus a tiebreaker advantage over New England for homefield advantage, while a New England win would leave the two teams tied for the best record, but the Pats would have the tiebreaker edge.

Both teams have winnable games in Weeks 16 and 17, so this game will almost certainly be the difference-maker for that advantage. New England has home games remaining against the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, while the Steelers play the Texans in Houston before closing the regular season at home against the winless Cleveland Browns.

The Steelers would be wise to ignore New England's Monday night loss to the Miami Dolphins. They need to get ready to play the best team in the league and then execute their game plan flawlessly.

This appears to be a high-scoring game because both teams have excellent offenses against defenses that have issues.

The Steelers are coming off a 39-38 come-from-behind win over the Baltimore Ravens in which quarterback Ben Roethlisberger exceeded 500 passing yards. 

Running back Le'Veon Bell and wideout Antonio Brown are regularly the top-ranked skill-position players at their positions. Bell has rushed for 1,105 yards and has scored seven touchdowns, and he is also an outstanding receiver. Brown has caught 99 passes for 1,509 yards and nine touchdowns, and his ability to make acrobatic and sideline catches is remarkable.

The Patriots have a slew of talented players, including quarterback Tom Brady, tight end Rob Gronkowski, wideouts Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan and Brandin Cooks along with running backs Dion Lewis and Mike Gillislee to attack the Steelers defense.

Pittsburgh lost outstanding linebacker and team leader Ryan Shazier to a spinal injury in Week 14, while the Patriots defense ranks 29th in yards allowed.

The Steelers are 2.5-point underdogs at home, according to OddsShark, and that makes it seem like the oddsmakers are inviting the public to bet on Pittsburgh.

We will not take that bait. We are ignoring the Monday night loss to the Dolphins, and the belief here is that the Patriots will do enough to win this game by a field goal or more. 

NFL Week 15 Odds and Picks

Thursday, Dec. 14

Denver (-2.5) at Indianapolis: 8:25 p.m., NFLN 

Saturday, Dec. 16

Chicago at Detroit (-5): 4:30 p.m., NFLN 

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City (-1): 8:25 p.m., NFLN 

Sunday, Dec. 17

Arizona at Washington (-4.5): 1 p.m., Fox

Baltimore (-7) at Cleveland: 1 p.m., CBS 

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-11): 1 p.m., CBS

Green Bay at Carolina (-4): 1 p.m., Fox

Houston at Jacksonville (-11): 1 p.m., Fox

Miami at Buffalo (NL): 1 p.m., CBS 

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans (-16): 1 p.m., CBS 

Philadelphia (-7.5) at N.Y. Giants: 1 p.m., Fox 

L.A. Rams at Seattle (-2): 4:05 p.m., Fox 

New England (-2.5) at Pittsburgh: 4:25 p.m., CBS 

Tennessee at San Francisco (-2): 4:25 p.m., CBS 

Dallas (-3) at Oakland: 8:30 p.m., NBC 

Monday, Dec. 18

Atlanta (-6) at Tampa Bay: 8:30 p.m., ESPN

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings

The Bengals appear to have emptied the tank in their Week 14 Monday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals led by 17 points in the second quarter, but they could not hold the lead against their archrivals and lost the game 23-20 on a last-second field goal.

The Bengals had nothing left in Week 15 and they were trounced 33-7 by the lowly Chicago Bears.

The Minnesota Vikings also lost their Week 15 matchup, dropping a 31-24 decision to the Carolina Panthers.

That loss ended an eight-game winning streak for the Vikings. They are likely to be an angry team when they return home to face the Bengals.

The Vikings still have an excellent chance to win homefield advantage in the NFC, and they have an opportunistic quarterback in Case Keenum, a pair of dangerous receivers in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs and a tight end in Kyle Rudolph who can make the difficult catch at the most opportune moment.

The Cincinnati offense did not have much fight against the Bears, and the Minnesota defense is better than Chicago's. Defensive end Everson Griffen has 13.0 sacks, and the Vikings rank third in fewest yards allowed. We don't see Andy Dalton having much success against a motivated Minnesota team.

The Vikings are 11-point favorites, and we see quarterback Case Keenum putting at least four touchdowns on the board. The Vikings will be ahead by at least 14 points at halftime and cruise to a dominating win.

Take the Vikings to win and cover the spread.

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Prop Bet

We look at the Thursday night game between the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts for our prop bet.

Oddschecker shows the odds on the first touchdown scorer in the game. 

Denver running back C.J. Anderson and wide receiver Demaryius Thomas are both listed at 8-1 to score the opening touchdown, as is Indianapolis running back Frank Gore.

T.Y. Hilton is a 10-1 shot to score the first TD for the Colts, while Emmanuel Sanders has the same odds for the Broncos.

While those player all offer reasonable payoffs, our choice is Indianapolis tight end Jack Doyle at 12-1. Doyle has been targeted 84 times this season and has caught 64 passes for 564 yards and three touchdowns. 

We think Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett will look for Doyle close to the goal line, and the tight end will come through with a touchdown and a big pay off.