Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs own seven wins in a row in the rivalry with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers, going 5-2 against the spread in the process. In a huge game in the AFC West, Kansas City and Los Angeles get it on Saturday night at Arrowhead Stadium.

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as one-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.2-20.2 Chargers (NFL picks on every game).

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Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers just bumped their winning streak to four in a row last week with a 30-13 victory over Washington. Los Angeles jumped out to a 13-0 first-quarter lead, let the Redskins get within 13-6 then scored the next 17 points of the game, on its way toward an easy cover of a six-point spread.

On the day, the Chargers outgained Washington 488-201, made 24 first downs, compared to nine for the Redskins, won the ground battle 174-65 and ground out a 35-25 time of possession advantage.

So Los Angeles has now outgained each of its last four opponents, three of them by 130 yards and more. The Chargers are also 7-2 both SU and ATS over their last nine games.

At 7-6 overall, Los Angeles is tied for the lead in the AFC West with the Chiefs but does not own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Chargers also trail 7-6 Buffalo by a tiebreaker in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot. So this game is crucial for Los Angeles.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 26-15 victory over Oakland. Kansas City hit the scoreboard on its first four possessions of the game to lead 16-0 at the half, and it pushed that to 26-0 in the fourth quarter before allowing the Raiders two meaningless scores.

On the afternoon, the Chiefs outgained Oakland 408-268, outrushed the Raiders 165-70 and won time of possession by a 37-23 split.

At 7-6 Kansas City leads the AFC West by a tiebreaker over the Chargers. But while the Chiefs would be the No. 4 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today, a loss this week would probably drop them out of the top six.

Smart pick

Kansas City beat Los Angeles back in September 24-10, but these teams have gone in different directions since then. Also, the Chargers don't fear playing on the road, going 3-3 SU and 4-1-1 ATS on the hotel circuit this season. The smart money here likes Los Angeles.

NFL betting trends

The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the Chiefs.

The total has gone under in five of the Chargers' last seven games against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games on a Saturday.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.