NFL Picks Week 15: Tips and Predictions for Prop Bets, Over/Under Lines and Odds

We're at the point of the NFL campaign where numerous regular-season games are potential playoff previews (e.g. the New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers) or matchups featuring teams that will be picking early in the NFL draft (e.g. the Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts).

Thankfully, we have a few games this week that look great on paper. You can find the entire Week 15 slate below, alongside spreads and over/under totals via OddsShark.

Then, we'll take a look at two prop bets (via Oddschecker) to feel confident about this week.

Denver Broncos (-2, 40.5 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Colts 20, Broncos 17

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6, 44 O/U) 

Pick: Lions 24, Bears 13

Los Angeles Chargers (-2, 45.5 O/U) at Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Chargers 21, Chiefs 20

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4.5, 43.5 O/U)

Pick: Cardinals 24, Redskins 17

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11.5, 39.5 O/U)

Pick: Jaguars 31, Texans 7

Baltimore Ravens (-7, 40 O/U) at Cleveland Browns

Pick: Ravens 20, Browns 10

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-11, 42 O/U)

Pick: Vikings 24, Bengals 13

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1, 47.5 O/U)

Pick: Seahawks 30, Rams 23

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 46 O/U) at Oakland Raiders

Pick: Raiders 24, Cowboys 17

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 17

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-2, 44 O/U)

Pick: 49ers 20, Titans 13

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Pick: Steelers 24, Patriots 23

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 45 O/U)

Pick: Panthers 31, Packers 27

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-16, 47 O/U)

Pick: Saints 31, Jets 7

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 40 O/U) at New York Giants

Pick: Eagles 24, Giants 10

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (No Line)

Pick: Bills 24, Dolphins 17 (assuming Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor starts)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor missed Sunday's game with the Indianapolis Colts due to a knee injury, but he was considered a game-time decision beforehand. That seems to bode well for his chances to suit up one full week later. Until his game-day status is known, no line is in place.

Rich Barnes/Associated Press

Best-Bet Props

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins: Margin of Victory

Full and obvious disclosure: The people in Las Vegas who make sports odds for a living know far better about spreads than the general public. However, it's surprising to see Washington installed as 4.5-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals.

The home team gets a three-point advantage when accounting for spreads, so a 4.5-point difference implies Vegas thinks Washington is 1.5 points better than Arizona.

While neither team is good right now, Washington has simply played bad football in its last three weeks.

The Redskins were tied with the now 2-11 New York Giants late in their Thanksgiving Day game before winning 20-10, and they then proceeded to lose to the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers by a combined score of 68-27.

They've been giving up gobs of yards through the ground and the air, and key injuries on the offensive side of the ball to running back Chris Thompson and tight end Jordan Reed have clearly hindered them.

Meanwhile, Arizona has beaten the 9-4 Jacksonville Jaguars and the 8-5 Tennessee Titans within the past three weeks with its third-string quarterback (Blaine Gabbert). The defense has been hit or miss, but cornerback Patrick Peterson is a future Hall of Famer who can shut down any wideout in the league.

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

Also, Cards wideout Larry Fitzgerald (another future Hall of Famer) is still dominating opponents in his 14th NFL season, as he has accrued 87 catches for 922 yards and five scores. He could have a big game against a Washington defense that allowed 314 passing yards and 30 points to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.

Given Washington's struggles and Arizona's success in recent weeks, the pick here is for the Cardinals to cover and win outright between one and 13 points.

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers: Total Touchdowns

Here's a look at Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota's passing yardage totals in the past three weeks: 159, 180, 184. Those numbers came against the Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts, respectively.

On average, those teams allow 224, 242 and 258 yards, respectively, or well above the Titans' passing yard marks.

In fairness to Mariota, he's playing through a knee injury, and we've seen how well he can perform when he's healthier and the offense is firing on all cylinders. Right now, though, the Titans offense is stagnant, as evidenced by a 12-7 loss to the Cardinals last Sunday.

If you look at the Titans' and San Francisco 49ers' win-loss records, you might think the Tennessee offense could turn things around given the home team is 3-10. However, San Francisco has looked much better in recent weeks, highlighted by a two-game win streak led by new starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The defense has also performed well recently.

The 49ers held MVP candidate Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks to just seven points through two-and-a-half quarters on November 26 before losing 24-13. Then, San Francisco went to Soldier Field and only allowed 13 points to the Chicago Bears the following week.

Granted, the Bears offense hasn't been great this year, but running back Jordan Howard has been, and he only managed 38 yards on 13 carries against the stout 49ers front.

The 49ers couldn't contain Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins last Sunday (149 yards, two touchdowns), but they did stop the rest of the team, holding everyone else to just 162 yards from scrimmage in a 26-16 victory. Once again, the run defense dominated, holding running back Lamar Miller to just 53 yards on 17 carries.

Tennessee's bread and butter in its smash-mouth offense is the running game, but if San Francisco can stop the Titans and the pass game continues to struggle, it could be a long day for them once again.

The guess here is that it is. As for the prop, the pick is the under for total touchdowns (five).