New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The New England Patriots will try to continue their dominance of the Miami Dolphins when they visit South Beach as double-digit favorites in Week 14's Monday night matchup. New England (10-2) has won 12 of the past 15 meetings with the Dolphins (5-7) and can clinch its ninth consecutive AFC East title with a victory or loss by the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. 

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 10.5-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.2-11.1 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Patriots can cover the spread

Because they are the Patriots. Riding a six-game cover streak, New England has also won eight in a row straight up and emerged as a solid Super Bowl favorite yet again. Defense has been the difference during the team's current run, as the Patriots have not allowed more than 17 points to any opponent during this stretch.

Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has done a marvelous job turning his unit around after they gave up an average of 32 points in starting the season at 2-2. The Sporting News mentioned Patricia as a head coaching candidate next year again along with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

This will be the second meeting between these teams in three weeks, and Miami nearly covered the spread at Gillette Stadium. The Dolphins came close as 17-point road underdogs in a 35-17 loss, but they had also won the previous three home meetings both straight up and against the spread prior to last season.

Matt Moore started at quarterback in the last meeting, and he threw two interceptions and one touchdown. Jay Cutler will be back under center after returning from a concussion and leading Miami to a 35-9 rout of the Denver Broncos.

Smart pick

This is a potential look-ahead spot for New England with a huge road showdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers on deck in Week 15. While that usually does not matter when talking about head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, it will here.

Belichick and Brady simply want to earn another victory, and even during their perfect 16-0 regular season 10 years ago, the Patriots did not worry about covering the spread down the stretch. This will be another New England win, but Miami will get the cover.

NFL betting trends

The Patriots are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against the Dolphins.

The total has gone over in the Patriots' last three games against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in their last eight games on a Monday.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.