NFL Predictions Week 14: Upset Picks and Projections

It's the best time of year to like NFL underdogs. 

Upset specials continue to look like the main course on the menu in the month of December. Contenders—especially in the NFC—keep fighting for playoff seeding, but a new energy seems to surround those teams that don't have anything to play for as their seasons wind down. 

We saw some interesting teams fall in Week 13, from the Detroit Lions to the Carolina Panthers right on up to the Philadelphia Eagles. This week doesn't figure to be any different, hence there only being a handful of large spreads as the house tries to protect itself. 

Let's take a look at the full schedule and outline some underdog picks.  

NFL Week 14 Schedule, Odds

New Orleans (-1.5) at Atlanta | O/U 53

Chicago at Cincinnati (-6.5) | O/U 

Detroit at Tampa Bay | O/U 

Green Bay (-3.5) at Cleveland | O/U 40.5

Indianapolis at Buffalo | O/U 

Minnesota (-3) at Carolina | O/U 41

Oakland at Kansas City (-4) | O/U 47

San Francisco at Houston (-3) | O/U 42.5

Dallas (-6) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 41.5

N.Y. Jets (-1) at Denver | O/U 41

Tennessee (-3) at Arizona | O/U 44

Washington at L.A. Chargers (-6) | O/U 46

Philadelphia (-2.5) at L.A. Rams | O/U 50.5

Seattle at Jacksonville (-3) | O/U 39.5

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-7) | O/U 

New England (-10.5) at Miami | O/U     

Green Bay (-3.5) at Cleveland

It's December, and the Cleveland Browns look like a good upset pick over the Green Bay Packers. 

If anyone needs to know how weird 2017 has been overall, show them the above sentence. 

But it's not so outlandish now. The Browns are due to get their first win of the season at some point and still have a chance to play the spoiler here—Green Bay doesn't have Aaron Rodgers on the field, but they're hoping to keep winning until he makes his return, catapulting them into the playoffs. 

NFL Media's Ian Rapoport noted the plan: 

It sounds like a Hollywood-esque scenario, except the Packers have looked miserable without Rodgers. They've won two games since Week 6, both against lackluster Chicago and Tampa Bay teams. Those Buccaneers were most recently defeated in Week 13, where Brett Hundley threw for only 84 yards in a 26-20 overtime win. 

Look, Cleveland isn't winning games, but it's sticking close in most and now the offense looks quite a bit more dangerous with Josh Gordon on the field. Flash didn't look like he missed any time at all, catching four passes for 85 yards to lead the team in receiving and helping DeShone Kizer to 215 yards with a touchdown and interception. 

These Packers don't have anyone who can run with Gordon, let alone contain Corey Coleman on the other side of the field. Look for the Browns to exploit the Rodgers-less Packers in the cold in an ugly affair. 

Prediction: Browns 27, Packers 20

Seattle at Jacksonville (-3)

This one seems easy enough. The Seattle Seahawks are surging, the Jacksonville Jaguars appear to be fading. 

The host Jaguars are 8-4 and running a miserable AFC South, yet over the past two weeks, losing to Arizona and beating Indianapolis isn't exactly impressive. It's a red flag when the lifeblood of the offense, rookie back Leonard Fournette, hasn't rushed for an average of three yards per carry in either of those two games. 

It seems teams have started to figure out the Jaguars, whereas there isn't any figuring out Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. He has the Seahawks winners in three out of their last four and seven of nine, throwing for multiple touchdowns in a game seven times in a row and counting. 

Former quarterback Sage Rosenfels was one of many to praise him for what looks like an MVP-caliber season: 

Wilson's incredible play has his defense slightly flying under the radar. The unit just held another MVP contender, Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles, to 10 points with a touchdown and interception, and overall it ranks seventh while allowing 18.5 points per game.

It's a combination a team like the Jaguars will have a hard time overcoming, even at home. And the Seahawks aren't overly struggling on the road this year, not with wins against teams like the Los Angeles Rams, so look for the strong defense to key on Fournette and force Blake Bortles to beat them through the air—which isn't happening. 

Prediction: Seahawks 20, Jaguars 14

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-7)

Quietly, the Baltimore Ravens are one of the hotter teams in the NFL right now as they ride a three-game tear into an AFC North battle against the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

These Ravens catch the Steelers at the perfect time, too, as the latter enters this one on a short week after an all-out war against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. Pittsburgh will be down linebacker Ryan Shazier, and breakout wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster is suspended for the game due to his actions Monday night. 

Granted, the Ravens are missing pieces as well after losing corner Jimmy Smith to a suspension, but it's not something the team sounds overly worried about. 

"Our secondary is the strength of our team," safety Eric Weddle said, according to ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley. "So, we're not going to sit back and be sorry for ourselves. [CB] Maurice [Canady] is back. Marlon has got to step up. Jaylen [Hill] has got to step up. That's why we have so much depth."

The Baltimore offense has come alive in recent weeks, which helps. They've scored 23 points twice, then 44 in an unexpected beatdown of the Detroit Lions, where Joe Flacco threw for two touchdowns and rising star Alex Collins ran 15 times for 75 yards and two scores of his own. 

None of this is to suggest the Steelers aren't a hot team right now. They're 10-2 and haven't lost since Week 5, but they're an odd contender, having lost to Chicago and escaped bad teams like Cleveland and Indianapolis by all of three points apiece. 

With the Steelers down key leaders on both sides of the football, it shouldn't be a surprise to see the Ravens go into Pittsburgh and control the line of scrimmage and game flow, grinding out a win to keep themselves in good playoff positioning. 

Prediction: Ravens 23, Steelers 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.