New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

How even is the recent rivalry between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints? Even as one or the other has swept the season series each of the last four seasons, they've alternated. New Orleans took both meetings in 2013 and 2015, while Atlanta won both games in 2014 and last year. The teams open their 2017 series Thursday night in Atlanta.

NFL point spread: The Saints opened as four-point favorites; the total was 55 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.4-22.8 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints rebounded from that loss to the Rams two weeks ago to beat Carolina last week 31-21. New Orleans drove the opening kickoff 70 yards to a touchdown, took a 21-14 lead into halftime, then drove their first possession of the second half 67 yards to a touchdown and cruised from there on its way toward the cover as a six-point favorite.

On the day, New Orleans outgained the Panthers 400-279, outrushed Carolina 148-112 and won time of possession by a 33-27 split. The Saints have now outgained nine of their last 10 opponents, outrushed eight of their last 10 foes and covered eight of the last 10 spreads they've faced.

At 9-,3 New Orleans leads the NFC South by a game and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the 8-4 Panthers. The Saints also trail 10-2 Philadelphia by one game in the battle for the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons finished November with three straight wins but lost a tough one last week 14-9 to a solid Minnesota team. Atlanta led the Vikings early 3-0 and 9-7 through three quarters but fell down early in the fourth and could not respond. The Falcons actually reached the Vikings' 27-yard line midway through the fourth quarter but chose to try a field goal and missed. They never got the ball back after that.

On the day, Atlanta got outgained by Minnesota but only by a margin of 312-275. The Falcons have still outgained seven of their last 10 opponents.

Atlanta got a bit of good news last week with the return of running back Devonta Freeman, who ran for 74 yards after missing the previous two games with a concussion. At 7-5, the Falcons trail 8-4 Carolina by a game in the battle for the second NFC wild-card spot.

Smart pick

This one's tough to call, but ultimately, the newfound balance on offense for New Orleans should provide the difference. Smart money here sides with the Saints.

NFL betting trends

The Saints are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Falcons.

The Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at night.

The total has gone UNDER in four of the Saints' last five games on Thursday.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.