NFL Predictions Week 13: Fantasy Guide, Odds Projections and Expert Tips

Football (reality and fantasy) features an incredible amount of variance, even among elite NFL players. For example, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones accrued more fantasy points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday than he did in his last four games combined.

This Sunday, he could be held in check as someone totally out of left field earns the distinction of being the No. 1 fantasy play of the week. Or perhaps Jones goes off and surpasses 200 receiving yards with ease.

It should be fun to see what he does for an encore, but until then, here's a look at a top-25 ranking of the best flex plays this week, in additions to the latest spreads and over/under totals via OddsShark.

You'll also find picks for each game in addition to three fantasy plays to consider given some perceived plus matchups and/or favorable game flows.

NFL Predictions and Odds

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 43.5 O/U)

Pick: Ravens 20, Lions 17

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-6.5, 43.5 O/U)

Pick: Titans 24, Texans 17

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5, 41 O/U)

Pick: Jaguars 23, Colts 10

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-1.5, 40.5 O/U)

Pick: Dolphins 19, Broncos 16

Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 44 O/U) at New York Jets

Pick: Jets 20, Chiefs 13

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47 O/U)

Pick: Falcons 30, Vikings 23

New England Patriots (-8.5, 48.5 O/U) at Buffalo Bills

Pick: Patriots 31, Bills 17

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3, 41 O/U)

Pick: Bears 20, 49ers 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 45 O/U)

Pick: Packers 24, Buccaneers 20

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5, 44 O/U)

Pick: Chargers 28, Browns 13

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 48 O/U)

Pick: Saints 27, Panthers 24

Los Angeles Rams (-7, 44 O/U) at Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Rams 24, Cardinals 17

New York Giants at Oakland Raiders (-8.5, 42 O/U)

Pick: Raiders 20, Giants 13

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 47 O/U) at Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Eagles 24, Seahawks 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 43.5 O/U) at Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Steelers 24, Bengals 20

Top 25 Fantasy Football PPR Flex Rankings

1. Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley (at Arizona Cardinals)

2. Jacksonville Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

3. Houston Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins (at Tennessee Titans)

4. Buffalo Bills RB LeSean McCoy (vs. New England Patriots)

5. Los Angeles Chargers RB Melvin Gordon (vs. Cleveland Browns)

6. Pittsburgh Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell (at Cincinnati Bengals)

7. Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown (at Cincinnati Bengals)

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (at Green Bay Packers)

9. Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen (vs. Cleveland Browns)

10. Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey (at New Orleans Saints)

11. New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas (vs. Carolina Panthers)

12. San Francisco 49ers RB Carlos Hyde (at Chicago Bears)

13. Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

14. Chicago Bears RB Jordan Howard (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

15. New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara (vs. Carolina Panthers)

16. Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

17. New England Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (at Buffalo Bills)

18. Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

19. Minnesota Vikings WR Stefon Diggs (at Atlanta Falcons)

20. Denver Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas (at Miami Dolphins)

21. Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (at New York Jets)

22. Oakland Raiders RB Marshawn Lynch (vs. New York Giants)

23. Tennessee Titans TE Delanie Walker (vs. Houston Texans)

24. Kansas City Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt (at New York Jets)

25. Miami Dolphins RB Kenyan Drake (vs. Denver Broncos)

Three Solid Matchup Plays

Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams

I may have typed this sentence in some form three times in the past week, but it bears paraphrasing on every occasion: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just allowed a combined 433 receiving yards to Atlanta Falcons wideout Julio Jones and Miami Dolphins wide receiver Kenny Stills in the past two weeks.

In fairness, Jones is one of the best wideouts the game has ever seen, and Stills is an excellent deep threat, but that's lot of yards. Furthermore, it's in addition to Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs torching the Bucs for 173 yards and two scores in September.

Simply put, the Bucs have not done well on the back end this year, and now they head north to Lambeau Field to take on a Green Bay Packers offense that earned a moral victory on Sunday night after losing 31-28 against a 9-2 Pittsburgh Steelers team many picked to dominate.

Of note, Packers wideout Davante Adams has assumed his perch as the team's No. 1 target, and he's developed a good rapport with backup signal-caller Brett Hundley. In their last four full games together, Hundley has hit Adams 25 times for 351 yards and two scores, per Pro Football Reference.

It wouldn't be a shock if Adams had a breakout game on Sunday and flew past the century mark in receiving yards.

San Francisco 49ers WR Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers wideout Marquise Goodwin is the type of player who can have a solid fantasy day off one play. In fact, that's what he did against the New York Giants, as his one reception went for 83 yards and a touchdown (15.3 fantasy points in points-per-reception leagues).

Although a matchup with the Chicago Bears in the Windy City doesn't look great on paper, there are a few things to consider.

First, if the Chicago Bears could, they would run the ball 30-plus times per game, mainly with Jordan Howard. They want to control the time of possession and wear opposing teams down with the rushing attack.

That might happen on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers. Per OddsShark, the Bears are three-point favorites at home with a low 41-point over/under total.

Unlike last week, when Chicago was forced to abandon the run against the Philadelphia Eagles in the midst of a 31-3 blowout, the Monsters of the Midway could look to pound the rock time and time again as it maintains a lead.

So what does that potential game script mean for Goodwin? In the event the hometown team pulls off its game plan, then the 49ers are going to have to play catch-up.

Should that be the case, then we could see the 49ers look to hit Goodwin on a home run ball or two to quickly get back in the game. And if that happens, then anyone rostering him on fantasy teams is in great shape.

Miami Dolphins TE Julius Thomas

According to Football Outsiders, the Denver Broncos have given up 67.3 yards per game to tight ends this year. Only two teams have given up more yards to the position.

This could be a sneaky good spot for Miami Dolphins tight end Julius Thomas in a "revenge game" of sorts against his former team. Thomas wasn't utilized often in the beginning of the season, but over the past four weeks, he's seen 23 targets and turned them into 17 catches for 174 yards and two touchdowns, per Pro Football Reference.

It will be interesting to see how the Fins decide to attack the Broncos defense. Denver's run defense has been dominant this year, but the line won't have Derek Wolfe and Domata Peko Sr, both of whom are battling injuries that will force them to miss the contest.

Also, the Broncos will be without cornerback Aqib Talib, who was suspended for one game after fighting with Oakland Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree last Sunday.

Will the Dolphins attack the depleted Denver line? Or will they go after a backup defensive back replacing Talib?

Or maybe they'll go with door No. 3 and give Thomas a similar workload that he saw against the Oakland Raiders, when he caught six passes for 84 yards and a touchdown.

Ultimately, the table is set for a good game from Thomas. Whether it happens is another story.