Week Eight College Football Picks

Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 4 TCU 34 at No. 16 BYU 28

With conference standings always in flux, just about every game of every season affects more than just the two teams playing. But rarely does a situation exist where the outcome of a program—from a different conference, nonetheless—decides the fate of another.

Boise State is a program that fits that mold right now. And almost all the Broncos' eyes will be on TCU, starting this weekend.

With only WAC teams on its schedule, Boise State controls its destiny when it comes to finishing undefeated. According to our data based on simulations of the rest of the season, Boise State has a 71.3 percent chance of winning the rest of its games.

When it comes to the Broncos' BCS hopes—whether that's the championship game or just making a BCS bowl game—the Horned Frogs could decide their fate.

Playing in the much more competitive Mountain West Conference, if TCU remains undefeated through the end of the regular season, it would likely jump Boise State to snag a BCS bid for the non-automatic-qualifying conferences.

Of course, if the Horned Frogs don't finish undefeated, the Broncos probably have nothing to worry about. TCU will face its biggest road block to an undefeated season this Saturday when it travels to Provo, Utah, to take on BYU.

The Horned Frogs fell behind 6-0 against Colorado State last week before their offense erupted for 44 unanswered points, squelching most doubts about the team one week after they hung on to beat Air Force in below-freezing temperatures.

TCU, eighth in the first BCS standings, sits fourth in our power rankings .

The Horned Frogs are balanced offensively, led by veteran quarterback Andy Dalton. He is one of four TCU players with greater than 200 yards rushing and has also thrown for 1,223 yards with eight touchdowns and just three interceptions.

On defense, it's all starts with All-American defensive end Jerry Hughes. TCU is one of just nine teams in the country allowing less than four yards per play and is tied for sixth in the country with 3.3 sacks per game.

BYU's BCS hopes were leveled when the Cougars were routed at home by Florida State.

And while they haven't always looked dominant since then, a 10-point victory at San Diego State last week helped them improve to 6-1. The Cougars have remained top-25 mainstay in our power rankings throughout the year, thanks to a season-opening victory over Oklahoma.

With one of the top offenses in the country averaging 469 yards per game and 6.67 yards per play, the Cougars are also led by a senior quarterback in Max Hall.

While he's been more prone to turnovers than previous years, Hall is still throwing for more than 300 yards per game, many of them going to All-American candidate Dennis Pitta at tight end.

The Cougars average more yards per completion (9.56) than any other team in the country. But, giving up nearly 5.4 yards per play, BYU's defense has been a bit suspect to this point.

We thought this would be the Game of the Week in our original Week Eight Preview before the season began and it has lived up to the hype, though TCU has widened its margin a bit.

Averaging a two-point victory in simulations prior to the start of the season, the Horned Frogs now remain unbeaten—and continue to leave Boise State fans worried—by winning over BYU 69.3 percent of the time and by an average margin of 34-28.

Other Notable Games in Week Eight

The BYU-TCU matchup is the only one this week between two teams ranked in the top 20 of our power rankings .

In the Big East, however, the fight for the top contender to Cincinnati continues.

The Bearcats, coming off a victory over then-unbeaten South Florida, beat Louisville 89.1 percent of the time, but the race behind them becomes more intriguing as the Bulls travel to Pitt.

South Florida drops its second straight game 52.6 percent of the time as the Panthers win 32-28.

The Iowa Hawkeyes are also looking to remain unbeaten at Michigan State, and they do just that 82.5 percent of the time by a score of 24-14.

Michigan will try to land another blow to Penn State's Big Ten title hopes, but the Nittany Lions win nearly 80 percent of the time and by a score of 30-20 in the Big House.

Oh, and if you are still actually worried about Boise State suffering an unexpected setback, the Broncos are winners 95 percent of the time at Hawaii.

To see other picks like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

College Football Week 8
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Clemson Tigers	26.7	15
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	73.3	25
Maryland Terrapins	43.8	15
@ Duke Blue Devils	56.2	18
Florida State Seminoles	62.9	20
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	37.1	16
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	88.8	27
@ Virginia Cavaliers	11.2	14
Louisville Cardinals	10.9	14
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	89.1	34
Connecticut Huskies	34.3	20
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	65.7	27
Akron Zips	34.7	12
@ Syracuse Orange	65.3	18
South Florida Bulls	47.4	28
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	52.6	32
Minnesota Golden Gophers	13.4	13
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	86.6	28
Illinois Fighting Illini	27.1	16
@ Purdue Boilermakers	72.9	28
Indiana Hoosiers	41.3	15
@ Northwestern Wildcats	58.7	20
Penn State Nittany Lions	79.3	30
@ Michigan Wolverines	20.7	20
Iowa Hawkeyes	82.5	24
@ Michigan State Spartans	17.5	14
Kent State Golden Flashes	11.6	8
@ Ohio Bobcats	88.4	27
Buffalo Bulls	31.5	18
@ Western Michigan Broncos	68.5	25
Temple Owls	61.8	24
@ Toledo Rockets	38.2	21
Ball State Cardinals	67.7	18
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	32.3	14
Central Michigan Chippewas	81.1	28
@ Bowling Green Falcons	18.9	16
Northern Illinois Huskies	94.8	28
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	5.2	10
Washington State Cougars	5.0	7
@ California Golden Bears	95.0	39
UCLA Bruins	17.5	13
@ Arizona Wildcats	82.5	26
Oregon State Beavers	21.5	21
@ USC Trojans	78.5	33
Arizona State Sun Devils	37.1	19
@ Stanford Cardinal	62.9	26
Oregon Ducks	86.6	30
@ Washington Huskies	13.4	15
Vanderbilt Commodores	13.4	10
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	86.6	25
Tennessee Volunteers	17.9	12
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	82.1	27
Auburn Tigers	21.5	16
@ LSU Tigers	78.5	28
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	43.8	17
@ Kentucky Wildcats	56.2	22
Arkansas Razorbacks	52.6	27
@ Mississippi Rebels	47.4	26
Florida Gators	95.0	42
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	5.0	13
Idaho Vandals	41.0	27
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	59.0	31
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	73.7	27
@ Utah State Aggies	26.3	19
Boise State Broncos	95.0	42
@ Hawaii Warriors	5.0	17
Fresno State Bulldogs	95.0	40
@ New Mexico State Aggies	5.0	12
Boston College Eagles	32.7	21
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	67.3	29
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	37.8	17
@ Navy Midshipmen	62.2	23
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	87.6	25
@ Army Black Knights	12.4	12
Texas A&M Aggies	14.4	18
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	85.6	33
Iowa State Cyclones	19.9	17
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	80.1	30
Colorado Buffaloes	29.4	20
@ Kansas State Wildcats	70.6	28
Oklahoma Sooners	82.1	29
@ Kansas Jayhawks	17.9	18
Oklahoma State Cowboys	88.4	36
@ Baylor Bears	11.6	21
Texas Longhorns	91.5	30
@ Missouri Tigers	8.5	15
Southern Methodist Mustangs	5.0	13
@ Houston Cougars	95.0	39
Tulane Green Wave	17.5	15
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	82.5	30
UAB Blazers	37.8	18
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	62.2	24
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	82.1	30
@ UTEP Miners	17.9	20
UCF Knights	90.0	28
@ Rice Owls	10.0	13
Air Force Falcons	23.1	16
@ Utah Utes	76.9	28
San Diego State Aztecs	43.8	16
@ Colorado State Rams	56.2	20
UNLV Rebels	54.7	21
@ New Mexico Lobos	45.3	19
TCU Horned Frogs	69.3	34
@ Brigham Young Cougars	30.7	28
Florida International Golden Panthers	10.0	11
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	90.0	28
North Texas Mean Green	15.5	14
@ Troy Trojans	84.5	29
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	23.9	10
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	76.1	21
Florida Atlantic Owls	33.9	19
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	66.1	27

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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at [e-mail] . Thanks!