Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The NFC South lead will be on the line Sunday in New Orleans when the Saints (8-3) host the Carolina Panthers (8-3) as small home favorites.

The Panthers will be going for their fifth straight victory while the Saints hope to bounce back after seeing their eight-game winning streak snapped last week.

NFL point spread: The Saints opened as four-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.2-13.5 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

This is a revenge game for Carolina after losing the first meeting at home back in Week 3. The Panthers, at +1800 on the updated Super Bowl 52 odds, have won five of seven since then, with their only real puzzling loss coming against the Chicago Bears on the road in Week 7.

During their current four-game winning streak, they are also a perfect 4-0 against the spread following a 35-27 win over the New York Jets as 5.5-point road favorites last Sunday. Carolina has also gone an impressive 4-0 straight up and ATS as an underdog this season, with three of those wins coming on the road.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans dominated the first meeting 34-13 behind a balanced offensive attack and will try to do the same thing in the rematch.

Rookie running back Alvin Kamara had just two carries in the first game versus the Panthers, but he still found paydirt on a 25-yard run to close out the scoring in the fourth quarter. Kamara has become a much bigger part of the offense since then and is arguably more valuable than Carolina counterpart Christian McCaffrey.

The Saints are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings with the Panthers, too, and have their number lately, especially from a betting perspective.

Smart pick

Both of these teams face a majority of divisional opponents in their last five games, with New Orleans playing four and Carolina three. The defending NFC South champion Atlanta Falcons are still lurking one game back in the standings and finish the season with four consecutive divisional matchups, playing the Saints twice and Panthers once.

Whoever wins this game is clearly in the driver's seat the rest of the way, and New Orleans would love nothing more than to sweep Carolina. The Saints have won eight straight as favorites (6-2 ATS), so look for them to extend each of those trends.

NFL betting trends

The Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Saints.

The total has gone over in five of the Panthers' last six games against the Saints.

The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the late afternoon.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.