Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Green Bay Packers (5-6) will try to get back to the .500 mark and stay in the NFC playoff race when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) on Sunday as small home underdogs.

The Buccaneers are also hoping to make a late run at the postseason with quarterback Jameis Winston back under center.

NFL point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 23.4-20.9 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Winston has missed the last three games with a shoulder injury, but he returned to practice on Wednesday and has been upgraded to probable.

That is a huge positive for Tampa Bay, since he will be the best signal caller on the field despite Green Bay's Brett Hundley looking good last week in a 31-28 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Hundley has not played well at Lambeau Field in his three starts there, losing all three games with four interceptions and no touchdowns. Winston should play better in his return.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Hundley did throw a career-high three touchdowns last Sunday night against the Steelers and tied a career best with 245 passing yards. He has great chemistry with wide receiver Davante Adams, who made five catches for 82 yards and scored one of the touchdowns.

But more importantly, rookie running back Jamaal Williams has played well to help take pressure off Hundley. Williams had 21 carries for 66 yards and four receptions for 69 yards at Pittsburgh to go along with two touchdowns. If both players can continue to improve, then Hundley will pick up his first career victory at Lambeau.

Smart pick

The Packers, having sunk to +20000 on the Super Bowl 52 odds, went toe-to-toe with the Steelers last week and proved that they can still be competitive without injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Hundley showed a lot of poise in prime time after looking awful at home in a 23-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens the previous week, and his play will be the key to this game again.

The Bucs are just 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games, and they will struggle at Green Bay. Back the Pack to win and cover.

NFL betting trends

The Buccaneers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Packers.

The total has gone under in 30 of the Buccaneers' last 42 games against the Packers.

The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.