New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

As with most of their rivals, the New England Patriots own a huge edge over their next opponent, winning 29 of the last 33 meetings outright against Buffalo. But the Bills have actually won two of the last five meetings and split the last nine against the spread at 4-4-1. Does Buffalo have any chance at an upset Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park? 

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 8.5-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.9-15.6 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots just covered the largest spread in the NFL this season, beating Miami last week 35-17 as 17-point favorites. New England used a fake punt to keep the opening drive of the game alive that resulted in a touchdown, led 14-0 after one quarter and 21-10 at halftime. The Patriots tacked on the game's final score midway through the fourth quarter and held on for the cash.

New England outgained the Dolphins 417-221 and won the ground game 196-67.

The Patriots defense has now held each of its last seven opponents to 17 points or less and only allowed one touchdown last week. Miami's other touchdown came on a fumble-six off a bad New England snap. Not coincidentally, the Patriots are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS over their last seven games.

New England is also 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season in true road games.

At 9-2 overall, the Patriots occupy the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoff standings, losing out to Pittsburgh (9-2) on a tiebreaker.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills snapped a three-game losing streak with a 16-10 victory at Kansas City last week. With Tyrod Taylor back at the helm, Buffalo jumped out to a 10-0 lead. The Chiefs got within 13-10, but the Bills added a field goal and hung on for the outright win as an eight-point dog.

The Bills only came up with 268 yards of offense but held Kansas City to just 236. They also won the time of possession by a 33-27 margin.

Buffalo lost its most recent home game to New Orleans, but it's still 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS this season at New Era Field.

At 6-5 overall, the Bills sit in the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings.

Smart pick

New England just does what it wants and scores when it wants, and now the defense is coming around. Buffalo, meanwhile, has been outgained in nine of its last 10 games. The smart play here gives the points by going with the Patriots.

NFL betting trends

The Bills are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 games after winning as an underdog.

The Bills are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games against divisional opponents.

The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.