Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 23, 2017

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown celebrates after he made a touchdown catch during an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans in Pittsburgh, Thursday, Nov. 16, 2017, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

The Green Bay Packers are 1-4 both straight up and against the spread without Aaron Rodgers this season, and just 3-9-1 SU and 2-11 ATS the last 13 times Rodgers hasn't taken the majority of snaps in a game. That's the trend Green Bay will fight when it takes on the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday night at Heinz Field.

                 

NFL point spread: The Steelers opened as 14-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.9-6.2 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

                  

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers are a tough case to make at the moment, with four losses in their last five games, including a 23-0 blanking by Baltimore last week. Green Bay drove the opening possession of the game to the Ravens 5-yard line, but backup quarterback Brett Hundley threw an interception in the end zone. And that was as close as the Packers got to scoring all day.

Green Bay only trailed 6-0 at halftime last week, and on the day the Packers outgained Baltimore 265-219. But five turnovers, including three Hundley picks, basically cost them 16 points.

Two weeks ago Green Bay picked up its first victory under Hundley, 23-16 at Chicago. The Packers ran the ball for 160 yards that day, and Hundley threw zero interceptions.

The situation seems dire but at 5-5 overall Green Bay is still only one game (and a tiebreaker) behind 6-4 Atlanta in the battle for the second NFC wild-card spot.

                 

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers carry a five-game winning streak into Sunday, after trouncing Tennessee last Thursday 40-17. Pittsburgh grabbed a quick 10-0 lead, allowed the Titans to get within 16-14 early in the third quarter, then finished the game with a 24-3 run and covered as a seven-point favorite.

On the night the Steelers outgained Tennessee 349-316 and won the turnover battle 4-0. So Pittsburgh has outgained six of its last seven opponents, and outrushed each of its last five foes.

The Steelers, trailing only the Patriots on the AFC championship odds, are also 3-1 ATS at home this season.

At 8-2 overall Pittsburgh owns the top spot in the AFC playoff standings, but only by a tiebreaker over 8-2 New England.

                  

Smart pick

Double-digit favorites are 12-3 SU but only 6-9 ATS in the NFL this season. However, this is not a spot to take the points. Green Bay's offense is inept without Rodgers, and its defense is hanging by a thread. Smart money here plays Pittsburgh.

               

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in the Packers' last three games against the Steelers.

The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games at night.

The Packers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road in November.

               

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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