
What Are the Comfort Levels for Fantasy Studs Heading into Week 11?
It's hard to believe I've written this slideshow 11 times now, but here we are: It's Week 11, boys and girls.
You know the drill by now when it comes to this piece, but if you're new here, we look at some fantasy studs heading into the next week and examine how they might do given their matchup.
Some guys, no matter what, are matchup-proof, but there are some guys that aren't and may be more reliant on game script.
This week we have seven players to examine: one quarterback, five running backs and one wide receiver.
Let's look at these studs for Week 11.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
1 of 7
Let me start by saying this: There is never a reason to doubt New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady when it comes to fantasy football.
As we saw in Week 10 coming off a bye week, the Patriots and Brady torched the Denver Broncos, putting up 41 points.
Though the Broncos secondary isn't as rock-solid as years past, Brady still managed to throw for 266 yards and three touchdowns in the shellacking.
In Week 11, Brady and the Patriots get to do battle with an Oakland Raiders team that's even worse against the pass.
Through Week 9, the Raiders ranked dead last in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) against the pass.
Are you kidding me?
This game will be in Mexico City, but whether this game is in Oakland, New England, Mexico City—heck, put 'em in Thailand; it doesn't matter—Brady is going to carve this Raiders defense up.
Comfort Level: Just imagine living Brady's life for 24 hours.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Week 10 for Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette was not what anyone expected.
He had 19 touches (17 carries, two receptions) and totaled just 46 yards with no touchdowns.
Yikes.
And in Week 11 Fournette will go up against the Cleveland Browns.
Before you laugh and say, "Ha-ha, it's the Browns! Fournette is going to go off," keep in mind this stat: Through Week 9, the Browns were first in DVOA against the run.
With that said, in their last two games, they've given up rushing touchdowns to Detroit Lions running back Ameer Abdullah and Minnesota Vikings running back Jerick McKinnon.
Also, it's worth noting that the Browns haven't faced a running back of Fournette's caliber since Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell, who hadn't done much of anything regarding football that entire preseason prior (the game was in Week 1).
The Jaguars need to get back to pounding the ball with Fournette. They should be able to take out the Browns will relative ease, but for the sake of the franchise, stop allowing quarterback Blake Bortles to throw so much.
Feel confident playing Fournette in Week 11.
Comfort Level: This may be contradictory, but I mean—it is the Browns after all.
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
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This one is a bit of a tough call.
On one hand, we're talking about Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley and he's great, but on the other hand, the Minnesota Vikings are legitimately good against the run.
In Week 10, the Vikings took on the Washington Redskins. The Redskins scored 30, but none of those points came in the form of rushing touchdowns and all of their running backs were under four yards per carry.
Granted, the Redskins have a group of running backs that are nowhere near the caliber of Gurley is on the ground, but still.
Gurley still put up a nice performance in points-per-reception leagues in Week 10 with six catches for 68 yards, so maybe he'll need to utilize that skill set once again in Week 11.
Through the air, I'm not concerned about the Vikings that much, but the Vikings may contain Gurley for a 14-carry, 55-yard performances.
If Gurley gets targeted seven times like we saw in Week 10, this will be a fine game for Gurley, but the rushing attack may not be what we've grown accustomed to with Gurley.
Comfort Level: Waiting for your car to warm up in the cold weather.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
4 of 7
I'm thoroughly convinced at this point that the Kansas City Chiefs is going to obliterate the New York Giants defense.
Through the air, on the ground, doesn't matter.
But here we're talking about their running back Kareem Hunt.
Believe it or not, Hunt has gone six straight games without scoring a touchdown.
For as much as we love Hunt and admire his talent, he hasn't been scoring as much as you'd think.
Week 11 will change that.
The Giants defense couldn't stop a nosebleed if they wanted to. Hunt utilizes the entire field, whether it's running the ball or catching out of the backfield.
The scoring drought will end here. No more need to panic.
Feel confident with Hunt this week.
Comfort Level: That feeling when the pizza finally arrives after being 15 minutes late.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
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Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon has been a bit of a tough case to solve.
He's clearly the best running back the Bengals have, but Gio Bernard still has a role, and when he was healthy, Jeremy Hill did, too.
With Hill done for the season, it's down to just Bernard and Mixon.
However, Mixon hasn't had 15 carries in a game since Week 5. While he has touchdowns in two straight games, they didn't come on the best rushing performances: 31 and 37 yards in Weeks 9 and 10, respectively.
Now for Week 11, the Bengals head to Denver to take on the Broncos.
Yikes.
The Broncos did allow New England Patriots running back Dion Lewis to run in for a touchdown in Week 10, but the Patriots have a passing offense that can open up the running game. (Rex Burkhead and James White had receiving touchdowns.)
I'm not so confident when it comes to the Bengals passing the ball. The Broncos secondary hasn't been as solid as we've been used to, but it's hard to trust Andy Dalton against a defense that still has this much talent.
Mixon will need a touchdown in this game to be relevant in Week 11, and I'm not so sure it happens.
Comfort Level: Dropping your phone in the ocean.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans
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Blah.
That's honestly how I'm feeling about Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray for Week 11.
There are so many things going on with the Titans and Murray heading into a Thursday game at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Starting with the opponent, the Steelers are a top-10 DVOA team against the run through Week 9 and didn't allow a single Indianapolis Colts running back in Week 10 to average more than 3.2 yards per carry.
Couple that with the fact that Murray has Derrick Henry right behind him and it's not a situation I'm fond of.
The Titans do well on the ground against teams that can maintain a lead against. I'm not so sure they can do that against the Steelers.
The Pittsburgh offense has not been close to what we thought it'd be in 2017, but it still features some of the best playmakers in the game, while the Titans rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass through Week 9.
This just isn't the right spot for Murray.
Hard to sit him, but don't expect him to be your RB1 this week.
Comfort Level: Probably similar to how the players feel playing another football game four days later.
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
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We saw shades of it in 2016, but 2017 has been the year of the Thielen.
That's right, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen has been tremendous this season, especially in PPR leagues.
Thielen is finally on a roll with the touchdowns, scoring in back-to-back to games for his first two of 2017.
Thielen has seen fewer than eight targets in just one game, so he's getting all the looks he needs.
The Los Angeles Rams present a challenge against No. 2 wide receivers (if you consider Thielen to be the No. 2 next to Stefon Diggs), as they ranked first in DVOA in that category.
We might see the end of Thielen's scoring streak, but his targets and catch rate should make up for that if you're in a PPR league.
If you're in a standard league, Thielen is harder to trust on a week-to-week basis, but you probably know that by now. He relies on his catches for fantasy production.
Comfort Level: Like eating McDonald's. You know it's not good for you, but it just tastes too good.
Statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, Pro Football Reference and NFL.com. Please note that Football Outsiders, at the time of this writing, is only updated through Week 9 and DVOA rankings will update later in the week.
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