New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Thanks to a recent six-game run, the New Orleans Saints are 6-2 against the spread this season. Meanwhile, despite a stumble their last time out, the Buffalo Bills are 5-2-1 ATS this year.

Two of the better bets in football so far hook up when New Orleans battles Buffalo on Sunday at New Era Field in New York.

NFL point spread: The Saints opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.9-16.3 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints ride a six-game winning streak into Sunday following their 30-10 victory over Tampa Bay last week. New Orleans used a touchdown on a blocked punt to take an early 9-0 lead, pushed that to 30-3 in the third quarter and breezed from there to the win and the easy cover of a seven-point spread.

The Saints doubled up the Buccaneers in total yardage 407-200 and won the ground battle 151-87.

New Orleans has now outgained each of its last six opponents and outrushed four of them. It's also 6-0 ATS over that span.

At 6-2 overall, the Saints lead the NFC South by a half-game over Carolina. New Orleans is also tied for second place with Minnesota and the Rams in the NFC playoff standings and owns the tiebreaker on both teams.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills won two games in a row, and four of their previous five, but laid an egg last time out, losing to the Jets in New Jersey 34-21 in Week 9. Buffalo only trailed New York 10-7 into the third quarter, but it gave up a 24-0 Jets run as the Bills played their worst half of football in a month.

Buffalo only got outgained by a margin of 331-307, but three Bills turnovers basically cost them 13 points.

Two weeks ago, Buffalo put up 34 points in a win over Oakland, and just before that, the Bills scored 30 in a win over Tampa Bay. Those victory/covers made the Bills 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home this season.

At 5-3 overall Buffalo only trails first-place New England, the AFC championship favorites, by one game in the AFC East and owns the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff standings.

Smart pick

New Orleans, with an improved running game and defense, has outgained each of its last six opponents. Buffalo, on the other hand, has been outgained each of its last seven games. Smart money here sides with the Saints.

NFL betting trends

The Saints are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Bills.

The total has gone under in three of the Saints' last four games against the Bills.

The Saints are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.