Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Not long ago the New Orleans Saints beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seven times in a row. But Tampa Bay has won two of the last four meetings, and is 4-2 against the spread over the last six. Can the Buccaneers hang close with New Orleans on Sunday at the Superdome?

NFL point spread: The Saints opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.7-12.7 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Buccaneers started 2-1 this season but are now trying to snap a four-game losing skid, following a 17-3 loss to Carolina last week. Tampa Bay trailed the Panthers 10-0 at the half, pulled within one score in the third quarter but could get no closer, in a disappointing effort in from of the home crowd.

On the day the Bucs outgained Carolina 279-254. But Tampa Bay lost a fumble from the Panthers' 37-yard line, threw an interception that led directly to a Carolina touchdown and threw another pick from the Panthers' 35.

The Buccaneers have actually outgained four of their last five opponents. Unfortunately they only won one of those games.

Tampa Bay's previous three defeats all came by five points or less. The Bucs gave New England a tough game but lost 19-14; they rallied from way down against Arizona but fell short at 38-33; and they led Buffalo late but gave up the last 10 points to lose 30-27.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints march into Sunday on a five-game winning streak, following last week's 20-12 victory over Chicago. New Orleans took an early 7-0 lead with a touchdown on its opening drive and basically held on from there. Later, much to the delight of their financial backers, the Saints kicked a field goal with a minute-and-a-half to go to cover a seven-point spread.

On the day New Orleans outgained the Bears 387-307. But the Saints missed chances to pull away earlier, twice losing fumbles just outside the Chicago red zone.

New Orleans has now outgained each of its last five opponents, and outrushed three of them. Not coincidentally, it's 5-0 ATS over that span.

At 5-2 the Saints would be the No. 3 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today.

Smart pick

New Orleans is averaging 119 yards per game on the ground, and they're playing some good defense. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston is nursing a sore throwing shoulder. Smart money here sides with the Saints.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in four of the Buccaneers' last five games against the Saints.

The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at home against teams with losing records.

The total has gone under in 11 of the Buccaneers' last 15 games in November.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.